As Russia's President Vladimir Putin embarks on a permanent confrontation with the West, he has appointed a civilian with no military background as his new Defense Minister. This move signals Putin's determination to keep Ukraine within Moscow's sphere of influence and prepare for a potentially graver conflict with the United States and NATO.
On Sunday, just days after his inauguration for a fifth six-year term, Russian President Vladimir Putin reshuffled his entire cabinet, including a significant appointment: Andrey Belousov, a seasoned apparatchik with an economic background, as the new Defense Minister. This unprecedented move has raised questions about Putin's intentions for the war in Ukraine and Russia's future relations with the West.
According to the Kremlin's spokesperson, Dmitriy Peskov, Putin believes that "the winner on the battlefield" today is the one who prioritizes innovation and rapid implementation. By appointing Belousov, a "brainy strategist" and "battle-tested bureaucratic fighter," Putin aims to transition Russia onto a permanent wartime footing.
Putin's rationale differs from Western thinking. He views the conflict in Ukraine as an extension of the Cold War, a battle for control of post-Soviet space in Eurasia and a fight that Russia cannot afford to lose. Moscow considers Ukraine and other former Soviet states as vital to its strategic buffer zone against NATO.
Putin believes that the Soviet Union lost the Cold War due to an unsustainable economy unable to outcompete the U.S. military. To avoid a similar fate, he has been sanction-proofing Russia's economy for years. The appointment of Belousov, an economist with a deep understanding of the global economy, is a testament to Putin's desire to gain an economic advantage over the West.
As Putin embarks on a permanent confrontation with the West that could escalate into a direct war with the United States, he values Belousov's economic expertise. However, he also understands that the Russian defense establishment would not tolerate being led by a female, despite his high regard for Elvira Nabiulina, the highly respected Central banker.
Belousov and Putin share a deep mutual trust and ideological alignment. They supported the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Putin, aware of the U.S.'s significant debt and domestic economic challenges, believes that Washington cannot indefinitely support Ukraine militarily.
Belousov is tasked with ensuring that Putin's war machine remains operational indefinitely, keeping Ukraine within Moscow's sphere of influence and preventing its alignment with NATO. Ironically, Putin admires the capitalist nature of the American economy, which many Democrats and young Americans seek to dismantle. Belousov's appointment reflects Putin's desire to beat the U.S. at its own game of economic efficiency.
The appointment of Belousov is a testament to Putin's anticipation of a graver conflict, including a potential war with the United States and NATO. Belousov is seen as a solution to deterring such a war and securing a clear victory in Ukraine. Whether Putin has found this antidote remains to be seen, but his actions signal a somber direction for Russia and its relations with the West.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently summarized Belousov's appointment: "If they [the West] want it to be on the battlefield, it will be on the battlefield." Putin's actions reflect a deep-seated belief that Russia's future depends on its ability to withstand a long and potentially devastating confrontation with the West.
