CNN data analyst Harry Enten has refuted President Biden's assertion that he was underestimated in polls during the 2020 election, stating that in fact, polls overestimated his support against Donald Trump.
President Biden's recent dismissal of current polls showing him narrowly trailing Donald Trump in the 2024 election cycle has drawn scrutiny, particularly his claim that polls underestimated him in the 2020 race. However, a data analyst has challenged this assertion, citing evidence that polls were reasonably accurate in the previous election and that they are currently indicating a more challenging scenario for Biden.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten analyzed aggregated polling data from the 2020 presidential election and the past two midterm elections to argue that polls were generally accurate during the 2020 cycle and in predicting recent electoral outcomes.
Biden's Claims of Underrated 2020 Polls Debunked by Data Analyst
Contrary to Biden's claim, Enten found that polls did not underestimate Biden's chances against Trump in 2020. Biden's worst polling position in the general election still showed him leading by four points in April 2020.
Comparing July 2020 to July 2024, the differences are even starker. Biden held a 9-point lead over Trump in July 2020, while Trump now holds a 3-point advantage over Biden.
Biden's Claims of Underrated 2020 Polls Debunked by Data Analyst
Enten asserted that "the polls in 2020 did not, in fact, underestimate him. In fact, Joe Biden's worst polling position against Donald Trump in the general election, he was still up. He was still up by four points."
Regarding the argument that Biden might be comparing current polls to Democratic primary polls from early 2020, Enten clarified that polls generally favored Biden in the 2020 primary race after his initial setbacks in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Biden's Claims of Underrated 2020 Polls Debunked by Data Analyst
He emphasized that "overall, those primary polls had him ahead and then he won, and certainly when it came to the general election the polls always had Joe Biden [ahead]."
Despite pressure to withdraw from the race due to his shaky first debate performance, Biden has remained adamant in his decision to stay in the race. However, Enten has warned that Biden's current polling disadvantage puts the chances of Democrats retaking the House in jeopardy and could lead to a Republican takeover of the Senate as well.
In conclusion, data analysis suggests that President Biden's claims of being underestimated in 2020 polls are unsubstantiated. Polls were reasonably accurate in the previous election cycle, and current polls indicate a more challenging electoral landscape for the president. Biden's decision to remain in the race despite his current polling woes could have significant implications for the Democrats' chances of success in the upcoming election.
