Young voters in Michigan express concerns that President Biden's stance on Israel could lead to a backlash and split the vote, potentially enabling former President Donald Trump to win the 2024 election in the battleground state.
The 2020 presidential election was a nail-biter, with the results hinging on a handful of swing states. The 2024 rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden is expected to be equally close, but there are two key differences that could prove decisive: the presence of a popular third-party candidate and changes to the Electoral College.
Recent polls indicate that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent environmental activist and son of former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, could garner as much as 16% of the popular vote as a third-party candidate. This would make him the most successful third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992.
Another significant factor is the reapportionment of congressional seats and the Electoral College following the 2020 Census. Thirteen states experienced changes to their Electoral College vote count, with seven losing one vote and five gaining one vote. Notably, Texas gained two votes.
Overall, Republican-leaning states gained two votes in the Electoral College, while Democrat-leaning states lost two. While this may seem like a small change, it could have a substantial impact on the outcome of the 2024 election.
Under the 2020 Electoral College map, Trump would have needed to win Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia to reach the 270 votes required for victory. However, under the 2024 adjustments, he would have had 272 votes with the same victories.
Similarly, if Trump had won Georgia and Pennsylvania in 2020, Biden would still have had enough votes to win the presidency. Under the 2024 vote count, Trump would win with exactly 270 votes in this scenario.
These are just two examples of how the changes to the Electoral College could favor Trump in 2024. There are numerous other scenarios in which the new vote count could have an impact, and all the hypothetical situations that have been analyzed show an advantage for Trump.
Democrats are likely to seize on any Trump victory, especially one aided by the Electoral College changes, as an argument for replacing the system with a national popular vote. However, a national popular vote would give disproportionate power to citizens of large states and urban areas, potentially neglecting the concerns of those in smaller states and rural regions.
The Electoral College model, while imperfect, provides a more balanced representation of the nation's diversity. Instead of focusing on reforming the election process, Americans should seek to shift decision-making authority back to states and local governments, where it truly belongs.
