With the 2024 presidential nominating season coming to a close, voters in five states will cast their ballots in both presidential and state primaries on Tuesday, including the first Republican primaries since Trump's guilty verdict.
Tuesday's primaries will test Trump's resilience after his historic guilty verdict in his New York City criminal trial. It will also gauge the impact of former UN ambassador Nikki Haley's recent endorsement of Trump, despite her silence for months. Haley's endorsement could potentially boost Trump's support among primary voters.
Montana's primary will likely see Tim Sheehy emerge as the Republican nominee, facing off against Democratic incumbent Jon Tester. Republicans view Tester as vulnerable due to Trump's popularity in the state, where he won by 16 points in 2020.
In New Mexico, businesswoman Nella Domenici will challenge Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich for the Senate seat. Domenici hopes to end the Republican losing streak in Senate elections that has lasted for over two decades.
New Jersey's Republican primary will be a test of Trump's influence, as he endorsed Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner. The primary will also feature Curtis Bashaw, the leading fundraiser in the race, and Navy veteran Albert Harshaw.
In Democratic primaries, voters will cast their ballots for candidates in presidential, congressional, and state races. President Biden is expected to face little opposition in the presidential primaries.
Despite Trump's nomination, protest votes may occur through the "uncommitted" option on the ballot, particularly among those who oppose his policies, such as his support for Israel in the Gaza conflict.
The Senate primaries in Montana, New Mexico, and New Jersey will help determine whether Republicans can regain control of the chamber in November.
Republicans are optimistic about their chances of winning back Senate seats, citing the strength of candidates like Tim Sheehy in Montana, Nella Domenici in New Mexico, and Christine Serrano Glassner in New Jersey.
New Jersey's Democratic incumbent, Senator Bob Menendez, is facing federal corruption charges and is not running for re-election as a Democrat. He has filed a petition to run as an independent, potentially splitting the Democratic vote and benefiting the Republican nominee.
Trump's endorsement of Christine Serrano Glassner in New Jersey is seen as a boost to her campaign. The former president's influence remains significant within the Republican Party, and his endorsement could sway voters in her favor.
In New Jersey's Republican Senate primary, Curtis Bashaw has emerged as the leading fundraiser. He also enjoys an advantage on the primary ballot, with the county line in two-thirds of the state's counties.
