As President Biden's approval ratings decline, Democratic candidates in swing states may face a difficult task in distancing themselves from the president to avoid being dragged down by his unpopularity.
With President Biden's recent lackluster debate performance and subsequent polling downturn, the Democratic Party's hopes of maintaining control of the Senate could hinge on the willingness of voters to split their support between the president and down-ballot candidates. Democrats face a particularly challenging Senate election map, with incumbents in swing states seeking another term. They also hold only a slim 51-49 majority over Republicans, who enjoy a more favorable electoral landscape.
As Biden's poll numbers fall, Senate Democrats up for re-election may be increasingly tempted to distance themselves from the president. Historically, split-ticket voting has been more common in the 1970s and 1980s, often benefiting Democrats. However, it has declined in recent decades, potentially making it more difficult for vulnerable Democratic candidates in the current environment.
Biden's Slipping Support Threatens Democrats' Senate Chances
"If a candidate feels like the presidential candidate is going to lose his or her state, naturally they have to figure out ways to create distance between themselves and the presidential candidate," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball.
The campaigns of Senate Democrats in tough races will likely adopt different strategies from those of the president or candidates in safer seats. "As long as Senate Democrats continue to run ahead of Biden in their states, the candidates are likely to stop short of completely linking themselves to Biden to avoid being pulled down," said Madison Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin.
Biden's Slipping Support Threatens Democrats' Senate Chances
However, the calculus differs in swing states like Pennsylvania compared to red states like Montana. "As a political misfit in his state, Jon Tester has always needed to portray an identity that is somewhat independent of the national Democratic Party, so 2024 will be no different," Burden said. "In contrast, Bob Casey's fate depends more on Biden having a good showing in Pennsylvania, so he will probably remain an enthusiastic supporter."
Republican strategist Doug Heye noted that few elected Democrats have openly acknowledged Biden's declining health, a factor that may further complicate the electoral dynamics in swing states.
Biden's Slipping Support Threatens Democrats' Senate Chances
"No elected Democrat — safe seat or in-play — wants to be first to state the obvious about President Biden’s state of health," Heye said.
Ultimately, the success of Democratic Senate candidates in swing states will depend on their ability to balance their support for Biden with the need to appeal to voters who may have reservations about the president. If Biden's unpopularity persists, it could drag down Democrats in key races, jeopardizing their chances of maintaining control of the Senate.
Biden's Slipping Support Threatens Democrats' Senate Chances
