Beijing's increasingly hostile moves have experts worried that armed conflict may be on the horizon, with the United States potentially forced to intervene under a treaty obligation to defend the Asian nation.
China's actions in the South China Sea have been growing increasingly aggressive in recent months, raising concerns among experts that armed conflict with the Philippines may not be far off.
Beijing has employed various tactics to harass and block Philippine vessels, including firing military-grade lasers and high-powered water cannons, encircling and blocking ships, and even ramming Philippine boats. These actions have prompted the Philippines to warn China that further escalations could cross a "red line," leading to a military response.
China's Escalating Aggression in South China Sea Raises Fears of Conflict with Philippines
The recent incident involving a Chinese Coast Guard ship blocking a medical evacuation of a sick Filipino crew member has further fueled tensions. The Philippine government condemned the incident as "barbaric and inhumane."
The escalation of tensions has its roots in China's aggressive territorial claims in the South China Sea. Beijing asserts its sovereignty over roughly 90% of the vast waterway, a claim that overlaps with those of other nations, including the Philippines.
China's Escalating Aggression in South China Sea Raises Fears of Conflict with Philippines
China's military presence in the South China Sea has been ramping up in recent years. The People's Liberation Army Navy now operates the world's largest fleet of active warships, while the Coast Guard, a paramilitary force, has over 160 armed vessels and numerous patrol boats.
The Chinese Coast Guard has also made use of a "maritime militia," which consists of fishing boats equipped by the military and manned by deputized personnel. These boats have been involved in confrontations with Philippine fishermen and coast guard vessels.
China's Escalating Aggression in South China Sea Raises Fears of Conflict with Philippines
One of the flashpoints of the conflict is the Spratly Island chain, which is claimed by several nations but has been heavily militarized by China. In 1999, the Philippines grounded a World War II-era landing craft on the Second Thomas Shoal, a tiny reef in the Spratly Islands, to assert its sovereignty.
In December 2023, China sent 27 vessels to encircle the Second Thomas Shoal, preventing it from being resupplied. The Philippines has condemned this action as a violation of international law.
China's Escalating Aggression in South China Sea Raises Fears of Conflict with Philippines
China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea has prompted the Philippines to strengthen its ties with the United States, Australia, and Japan. The US has access to nine temporary bases in the Philippines, and the two nations are discussing closer military cooperation.
Taiwan and the Philippines have also been working to enhance their maritime security cooperation. Taiwan recently launched a new 4,000-ton Coast Guard vessel equipped with high-pressure water cannons.
China's Escalating Aggression in South China Sea Raises Fears of Conflict with Philippines
Experts believe that China's bullying of the Philippines could be a test of America's resolve. If the US fails to respond to a clear attack on its treaty ally, it may embolden China to escalate its actions against Taiwan.
The recent incident on Second Thomas Shoal, which reportedly left a Philippine sailor severely injured, may have already crossed the "red line" that the Philippines has warned China not to cross. The United States has condemned China's actions and reiterated its commitment to defend the Philippines under the terms of the Mutual Defense Treaty.
China's Escalating Aggression in South China Sea Raises Fears of Conflict with Philippines
The situation in the South China Sea remains tense, and experts are concerned that a broader conflict could erupt at any moment. The United States, the Philippines, and China are all playing a dangerous game, and it is unclear how this standoff will end.
