Mexico's presidential front-runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, faces significant challenges in reducing crime nationwide despite her success in Mexico City. The ongoing border crisis and increased migration from across the globe have exacerbated security concerns, while cartel violence and impunity continue to plague many regions.
Claudia Sheinbaum, the leading candidate in Mexico's upcoming presidential election, has made reducing insecurity a cornerstone of her campaign. However, she faces a daunting task as Mexico grapples with a complex web of security challenges.
Over 30,000 Chinese nationals have entered the California-Mexico border since October, highlighting the global impact of the border crisis. The ongoing violence in Mexico, including the recent cancelation of a campaign event due to cartel violence, underscores the challenges Sheinbaum will encounter if elected.
Six out of every ten Mexicans consider insecurity the country's main problem. Despite a promising campaign, Sheinbaum's plans to reduce Mexico's murder rate face scrutiny. Critics question whether her past success in Mexico City can be replicated nationwide.
Sheinbaum's plan involves doubling the number of federal investigators, increasing National Guard troops, decreasing impunity, and implementing youth education and community programs. However, critics argue that her plan lacks specific details and funding commitments.
Under current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's administration, Mexico's homicide rate has fallen by 20%, but the country still has one of the highest murder rates in the world. López Obrador's security strategy, which prioritizes less confrontational approaches with organized crime groups, has been criticized for its effectiveness.
Critics argue that the cartel rivalry between the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco Cartel has intensified under López Obrador's presidency. Additionally, smaller crime groups have gained more power in regions like Michoacan.
Sheinbaum's close ties to López Obrador have raised questions about her willingness to criticize his security failures, as her own popularity is largely attributed to his support. Critics also point to the continued increase in disappearances in Mexico City, which they argue may have contributed to the apparent reduction in homicide numbers.
The team of Sheinbaum disputes allegations of cover-ups, claiming that only 10% of deaths classified as "events of undetermined intent" are later confirmed as homicides. They also attribute the increase in disappearances to improved reporting rather than a surge in incidents.
Despite the challenges, Sheinbaum remains the favorite to win the presidency. If elected, her ability to address Mexico's security concerns will be a defining factor in her success or failure as a leader.
