According to CNN's senior data reporter, the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is so close that if Trump outperforms current polling by one point, he will win the White House.
CNN's senior data reporter, Harry Enten, has declared that the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is so close that if Trump outperforms current polling by just one point, he will secure victory in the White House.
Enten emphasized that this race is the tightest in a generation, with no candidate holding a consistent five-point lead over the other. The current polling averages show Harris leading Trump by only six-tenths of a point in battleground states, which is narrower than the nine-tenths of a point lead President Biden held over Trump in the same states during the last election.
CNN Data Expert: Trump Could Win White House If He Outperforms Current Polling by One Point
According to Enten's analysis, if the November election results were to perfectly mirror today's polling, Harris would win with 292 electoral votes to Trump's 246. However, if Trump were to outperform his current polls by even one percentage point, the outcome would swing in his favor. In this scenario, Trump would earn 287 electoral votes compared to Harris's 251.
Enten highlighted the significance of this slight movement, stating that it could make all the difference in the outcome of the election. The closeness of the race is particularly concerning for the Harris campaign, as it falls within the margin of error in swing states.
CNN Data Expert: Trump Could Win White House If He Outperforms Current Polling by One Point
Journalist Mark Halperin echoed Enten's sentiments, noting that Harris's lead over Trump in swing states is not conclusive and that the numbers are a "scary place" for her to be in just a couple of months ahead of the election.
Enten's analysis aligns with a recent Fox News poll that found Trump leading Harris by one point. This poll suggests that the race is still very much in play and that Trump has the potential to gain momentum in the coming months.
CNN Data Expert: Trump Could Win White House If He Outperforms Current Polling by One Point
The tightness of the race underscores the importance of voter turnout and the potential for small shifts in support to have a major impact on the outcome. Both candidates will undoubtedly be intensifying their campaigns in the remaining months leading up to the election, with each hoping to gain the slight edge that could secure their victory.
