CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten has raised concerns about Vice President Kamala Harris's chances of winning the presidency, citing the low percentage of Americans who believe the country is on the right track. This metric has historically been a key indicator of the incumbent party's success in elections.
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten has issued a warning that Vice President Kamala Harris's chances of winning the presidency could be in jeopardy due to Americans' widespread concerns about the country's direction. Enten's analysis, based on recent polling data, suggests that Harris would face an unprecedented challenge if she were to emerge as the Democratic nominee in 2024.
According to Enten, only 28% of Americans currently believe that the country is on the right track. This number falls dangerously close to the historical average rating of 25% when the party in power loses major elections, such as the presidency or control of Congress. Conversely, when the incumbent party retains power, the average percentage of Americans who believe the country is on the right track is 42%.
CNN Data Guru Warns of 'Bad Sign' for Kamala Harris's Campaign Due to Americans' Concerns About Country's Direction
Enten's charting of the data reveals a stark contrast between the current 28% and the 42% average seen in incumbent victories. He further emphasizes that no White House party has ever won re-election with less than 39% of the country believing the nation is on the right track.
"This to me is a bad sign for Kamala Harris' campaign," Enten declared on CNN. "The bottom line is it looks a lot more like a loser than it does like a winner when it comes to the country being on the right track."
CNN Data Guru Warns of 'Bad Sign' for Kamala Harris's Campaign Due to Americans' Concerns About Country's Direction
Enten's analysis has raised questions about the Democratic Party's ability to retain the White House in 2024. CNN anchor John Berman asked if it was possible for the party to win despite the low "right track" numbers. Enten acknowledged that there is precedent for incumbent victories with low approval ratings, citing the 39% rate in 1996 when then-President Bill Clinton won re-election.
However, Enten stressed that the current situation is unique in that it involves a President who is seen as particularly unpopular. He cited former President Donald Trump's high disapproval ratings and suggested that these factors could potentially disrupt established historical norms.
CNN Data Guru Warns of 'Bad Sign' for Kamala Harris's Campaign Due to Americans' Concerns About Country's Direction
"Maybe we've entered a new political environment where Donald Trump is so unpopular that these historical norms, these historical measures that we look at don't actually mean what we think anymore," Enten stated. "I'll tell you this much, Kamala Harris better hope that's the case, because otherwise this right track, wrong direction situation will not work out in their favor."
The low "right track" numbers present a significant challenge for Harris's potential campaign and raise questions about the Democratic Party's prospects in 2024. While some analysts have expressed hope that the party can overcome these obstacles, Enten's data suggests that Harris's path to the presidency is fraught with obstacles.
CNN Data Guru Warns of 'Bad Sign' for Kamala Harris's Campaign Due to Americans' Concerns About Country's Direction
