The success of right-wing parties in the recent European Parliament elections has sent shockwaves across the continent and raised concerns about a potential shift to the right in global politics. Analysts will look to these results for insights into upcoming elections, including the 2024 U.S. presidential race.
The results in Europe reflect a broader trend of political polarization and voter discontent with the status quo. Over 50 countries have elections scheduled this year, including France, which has announced a snap election in response to the European Parliament results. Analysts will scrutinize these contests to understand universal voter sentiments, particularly in light of the Brexit vote and Donald Trump's surprise victory in 2016.
In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) made significant gains, cementing the country's shift to the right. Wilders' success stems from his focus on immigration, healthcare, housing, and the cost of living crisis, issues that resonate with voters facing economic hardship. Similar issues have fueled the rise of right-wing parties in other European countries.
Europe's Right-Wing Surge: A Bellwether for the U.S. and Beyond?
The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) gained 21 seats in the European Parliament, becoming the third-biggest European party. The Rassemblement National (NA) party in France will have 30 seats overall, giving right-wing parties a significant presence in the parliament. Meanwhile, left-wing parties including the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the Greens/European Free Alliance (EFA) lost seats.
ECR registered strong numbers in Poland and Germany, indicating the fragmented political landscape in many European countries. National parties join parliamentary groups, so wins from parties like Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Wilders' PVV contributed to ECR's success. The ECR party is Eurosceptic and closely affiliated with right-wing parties in Italy and France.
Europe's Right-Wing Surge: A Bellwether for the U.S. and Beyond?
Politicians on the left have expressed concerns that ECR's major success has given the right more bargaining power in future policy discussions. The ruling EPP, in order to pass legislation, may need to engage with ECR, giving the right wing a greater voice in shaping Europe's agenda.
In France, National Rally took command in the European Parliament elections, surpassing President Emmanuel Macron's own party, Renew. This has prompted Macron to call a snap election, citing concerns that surging support for National Rally could hinder his remaining term and jeopardize France's role in Europe.
Europe's Right-Wing Surge: A Bellwether for the U.S. and Beyond?
One of the most prominent figures in the rising right is Jordan Bardella, the president of National Rally. He has emerged as a galvanizing force in French politics and is poised to become prime minister if his party wins the upcoming French elections. Bardella has attempted to soften the party's image and distance it from past controversies.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will need to balance the demands of both the left and right if she wishes to retain her position. Analysts warn that she will need to navigate a delicate path to find success.
Europe's Right-Wing Surge: A Bellwether for the U.S. and Beyond?
Despite the right-wing surge, Sandro Gozi, the leading MEP in Renew, believes that the "pro-European majority" in the left-wing parties will keep the parliament's policies and approach largely unchanged. However, the upcoming elections will provide further insights into the global political landscape and the potential for a continued shift to the right.
