A crime data expert has raised concerns about the accuracy of the FBI's national crime statistics, citing errors and estimation methods that could affect the reliability of the data.
The recent FBI report showing a decline in violent crime in 2023 has come under scrutiny from a crime data expert, who claims that the figures are not a true reflection of overall crime due to inaccuracies in data reporting. Sean Kennedy, an expert in law enforcement and crime data analysis, has pointed out flaws in the FBI's transition to a more detailed reporting system, the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS).
According to Kennedy, NIBRS places a significant burden on law enforcement agencies, and about 40% of agencies failed to submit data using the system in 2021. To address this issue, the FBI relaxed the requirement in 2022, allowing agencies to report using either the legacy system or NIBRS.
FBI Crime Stats Questioned: Data Expert Raises Concerns About Accuracy
However, Kennedy argues that this has led to inconsistencies in data reporting, with some agencies failing to submit any data. To fill in the gaps, the FBI has resorted to using estimates, which Kennedy believes can introduce errors and undermine the accuracy of the statistics.
"All estimates are off inherently, they're estimates and the FBI is now using estimates to get to a more accurate figure than the raw reporting totals," Kennedy said. "But that doesn't mean that they're more wrong or less wrong. It just means that they're still wrong."
FBI Crime Stats Questioned: Data Expert Raises Concerns About Accuracy
Furthermore, Kennedy has identified discrepancies between the FBI's reported homicide numbers and the data reported by individual cities. For instance, the FBI report shows 499 homicides in Chicago in 2023, while the Chicago Police Department's own figures report 617 homicides.
"That is 118 missing murders," Kennedy said. "There's mistakes, there's missing data and all of that has to be assumed when you look at FBI numbers."
FBI Crime Stats Questioned: Data Expert Raises Concerns About Accuracy
The Chicago Police Department has attributed the discrepancy to its inability to fully comply with NIBRS. This highlights the challenges faced by law enforcement agencies in transitioning to the more onerous system.
The FBI has acknowledged the issue of incomplete data and emphasized its efforts to provide the public with the most accurate numbers possible. However, Kennedy believes that local police departments need to be incentivized and held accountable for compliance with NIBRS.
FBI Crime Stats Questioned: Data Expert Raises Concerns About Accuracy
"There are federal and local and state grants that are going to these departments, so we need to give them the resources to comply," Kennedy said.
Kennedy also highlighted the need for improved transparency and collaboration between the FBI and local law enforcement agencies to ensure the reliability and accuracy of crime data. He further noted that NIBRS has the potential to provide more detailed and valuable information, but its implementation needs to be refined and made more feasible for all agencies.
FBI Crime Stats Questioned: Data Expert Raises Concerns About Accuracy
