With Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema bowing out of the Senate next year, the filibuster could be in jeopardy if Democrats retain the majority.
The Senate's time-honored filibuster rule faces an uncertain future as key defenders Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) prepare to exit the chamber. Their departure could pave the way for Democrats to overhaul the filibuster if they maintain control of the Senate after the 2024 elections.
"It would be on the table," said Jim Kessler, former senior aide to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), to Fox News Digital. However, he expressed skepticism about the likelihood of it passing.
Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, former spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and chief of staff of the Senate Republican Conference, echoed similar concerns. "If Chuck Schumer and the Democrats hold onto the Senate majority, they may have the votes to reform the filibuster with the departures of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema," he said.
Both Manchin and Sinema have announced their decision not to seek re-election. Kessler believes that there was never enough support among Democrats to completely eliminate the filibuster. "There was a lot more of smoke than fire on this," he claimed.
Manchin and Sinema have been widely criticized for blocking filibuster reform in its current form. However, Kessler suggests that other skeptical members of the Democratic caucus used them as scapegoats. "It allowed them not to say anything if they were skeptical," he explained.
Manchin himself has strongly condemned the idea of ending the filibuster. "It would be the saddest day in the history of the United States of America," he told Fox News Digital. "I believe it would be the saddest day in America, and it would be on their shoulders. If they get rid of the filibuster, they've got rid of democracy and what this country is all about."
Eliminating the filibuster altogether is considered unlikely, but Kessler believes that "rule changes that might affect the filibuster" are possible. In 2022, Democrats unsuccessfully sought to revive the "talking filibuster," where senators had to physically stand on the floor and speak continuously.
The reform would have allowed Democrats to proceed to a final vote without the 60-vote threshold to end debate. With 48 Democrats and 52 Republicans opposed, the change was rejected.
Despite the setback, vulnerable Democrats facing re-election in November are open to revisiting filibuster reform if they retain the majority. "I would certainly support that sort of reform," said Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who is up for reelection in swing state Wisconsin.
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Penn.), who faces a competitive race in Pennsylvania, also expressed support for revisiting the 60-vote rule. "It would be preferable that we get another vote."
Democrats were pressured to change the filibuster to pass abortion and voting rights legislation. However, political science professor Grant Reeher warns that Democrats could face risks if they make such a change. "It’s quite conceivable that Democrats could change the rule, only to lose the majority in the next midterm or the subsequent presidential election," he said.
"It would be hard for me to see the return for Democrats, versus the risk," Reeher added.
Kessler also noted, "the other team gets to play with this rule." He expressed concern that Republicans could eliminate the filibuster if they regain the majority.
Republicans have long advocated for eliminating the filibuster, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has never supported the rule.
