A new poll indicates surging support among America's youngest voters for Vice President Harris in her 2024 showdown against former President Trump.
Vice President Kamala Harris is enjoying a significant surge in support among young voters, according to a new poll released Tuesday morning by Harvard University's Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School. The poll indicates that Harris has opened up a commanding 31-point lead over Trump among people aged 18-29 likely to vote in the presidential election.
This dramatic shift from Harvard's survey this spring, which indicated President Biden topping Trump by just 13 points among likely youth voters, has raised alarms among Republicans. Younger voters have long been a key part of the Democratic party's base, and the numbers in Harvard's spring survey, as well as similar findings in other polls, raised concerns about the Democrats' ability to mobilize this important voting bloc.
Harris Surges in Polls Among Young Voters, Widening Lead Over Trump
Biden's disastrous debate performance against Trump in July led to his decision to drop his re-election bid, and Harris has since enjoyed a wave of enthusiasm and momentum as she replaced her boss atop the Democrats' 2024 ticket.
"This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall vibe and preferences of young Americans as the campaign heads into the final stretch," said longtime IOP polling director John Della Volpe. "Vice President Harris has strengthened the Democratic position among young voters, leading Trump on key issues and personal qualities."
Harris Surges in Polls Among Young Voters, Widening Lead Over Trump
Harris captures 61% of the support of likely voters aged 18-29, according to the poll, while Trump trails at 30%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, and independent Cornel West each stand at 1% support, with 6% undecided or refusing to answer.
The vice president's lead over Trump exceeds the roughly 25-point victory by Biden over Trump among younger voters, according to a Fox News Voter Analysis of the 2020 presidential election. The latest Fox News national poll, conducted this month, indicated Harris topping Trump by 17 points among voters under age 30.
Harris Surges in Polls Among Young Voters, Widening Lead Over Trump
The poll points to a number of factors fueling Harris' very large margin over Trump. Among them, a significant enthusiasm gap with nearly three-quarters of young Democrats saying they will "definitely" vote, compared to 6-in-10 Republicans, and a jump in Harris' approval rating as vice president, from 32% in the spring to 44% now. Harris' favorable rating now stands at plus five points, while Trump's favorables are 30 points underwater.
Harris outperforms Trump on key issues and personal qualities asked of both major party nominees in the survey. She is seen as more competent, honest, trustworthy, and likable than Trump, and she is perceived as doing a better job handling the economy, healthcare, and climate change.
Harris Surges in Polls Among Young Voters, Widening Lead Over Trump
The poll also points to a boost for Harris from social media, highlighting that just over half of young voters questioned "encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception."
The survey also spotlights a widening gender gap of 30 points, up from 17 points in the spring. "While both men and women are moving toward Harris, the rate of female support eclipses male support," the poll's release notes. Harris holds a 53%-36% margin among likely male voters aged 18-29, but her lead surges to 70%-23% among likely female voters.
Della Volpe emphasized that "Gen Z and young millennials’ heightened enthusiasm signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024." The survey by the Institute of Politics is Harvard's 48th Youth Poll. The latest edition of the poll was conducted Sept. 4-16 with 2,002 people 18-29 nationwide questioned. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.65 percentage points.
