Two weeks after an assassination attempt on Trump and one week after Biden's withdrawal from the race, Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania at 49-49%.
A recent Fox News poll has revealed that Vice President Kamala Harris is locked in a heated race with former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state that could determine the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.
According to the survey, conducted July 22-24, 2024, Harris and Trump are tied at 49-49% among registered voters in Pennsylvania. This result is nearly identical to the final election results in 2020, when Biden narrowly defeated Trump by just 1.2%.
Harris, Trump Locked in Tight Race in Pennsylvania, Fox News Poll Finds
The poll suggests that Harris has largely maintained Biden's coalition, while Trump's support base has remained firm. However, there are some notable shifts in voting patterns from the spring.
Trump has made significant gains among voters under 30, narrowing the gap by 23 points since April. He has also closed the gap with voters 65 and over, suburban women, and those with a college degree.
Harris, Trump Locked in Tight Race in Pennsylvania, Fox News Poll Finds
On the other hand, Harris has narrowed the gap among White men without a degree, a group that strongly supported Trump in 2020.
Overall, the poll indicates that the race in Pennsylvania is highly competitive and that either candidate could prevail in November.
Harris, Trump Locked in Tight Race in Pennsylvania, Fox News Poll Finds
The expanded ballot shows Harris with a slight edge of 45% to Trump's 43%. Third parties, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West, collectively receive 10% of the vote.
Voters have mixed views on Harris, with 49% holding a favorable opinion and 49% holding an unfavorable opinion. However, her favorable rating is higher than Biden's or Trump's.
Interestingly, those who hold negative views of both Biden and Trump are more likely to support Harris. In April, Biden had a narrower lead among this group.
The poll also found that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is widely considered to be on Harris' shortlist of potential running mates, has a strong favorability rating of 61%. He outperforms Harris in a hypothetical matchup against Trump, leading by 10 points.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, another potential running mate, fares similarly to Harris in a potential matchup against Trump, trailing by only 1%.
Biden's job approval rating has declined slightly since April, with 44% approving and 56% disapproving. However, his withdrawal from the presidential race has received widespread support, with 78% of voters approving.
The economy is the top issue on voters' minds in Pennsylvania, with 40% saying it will be the most important factor influencing their vote. A majority (58%) of voters say they are falling behind financially, while only 14% say they are getting ahead.
The poll was conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), and included interviews with 1,034 Pennsylvania registered voters. It has a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points.
