Amidst rising tensions between Israel and Iran, security experts warn that Hezbollah, a heavily armed terrorist organization backed by Iran, poses a significant threat to Israel. With its advanced military capabilities and proximity to Israel's border, Hezbollah could overwhelm Israeli defenses in a multi-layered attack.
Anxieties escalate over a potential regional conflict between Israel and Iran, fueled by Tehran's pledge to retaliate for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. However, amidst Israel's focus on its primary adversary, Hezbollah emerges as a potentially more lethal threat lurking just over its border.
"Hezbollah is the big X factor here," emphasizes Jonathan Conricus, former spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and current senior fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). "They possess significant military capabilities at their disposal, effectively operating as a nation state."
Hezbollah: The Looming Threat in a Potential Conflict with Iran
Years of Iranian support have bolstered Hezbollah's arsenal, which includes weaponry, technological expertise, and an estimated $700 million in annual funding. Its proximity to Israel along the northern border in Lebanon further amplifies its threat.
Hezbollah was founded in 1982 in response to Israel's invasion of Lebanon, a conflict sparked by tensions with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Today, Israel faces a "Ring of Fire," surrounded by nearly two dozen terrorist organizations, primarily backed by Iran.
Hezbollah: The Looming Threat in a Potential Conflict with Iran
In response to these threats, Israel developed the Iron Dome defense system, operational since 2011. However, the recent war in Gaza revealed its limitations, with extremist groups bypassing the system.
Security experts anticipate Iran employing a multi-layered approach in any future attack on Israel, utilizing proxy forces like Hezbollah to overwhelm Israeli defenses. Conricus believes this strategy could prove successful.
Hezbollah: The Looming Threat in a Potential Conflict with Iran
"Hezbollah has extensive rocket and missile capabilities that could pose a temporary challenge for Israeli air defenses, despite allied assistance," the 24-year IDF veteran explains.
Despite UN resolutions prohibiting non-governmental groups from acquiring arms in Lebanon, Hezbollah has "stockpiled" weapons from Iran, China, and Russia. Conricus estimates that Hezbollah has only showcased a quarter of its strike capabilities.
Hezbollah: The Looming Threat in a Potential Conflict with Iran
Israel has signaled a more forceful response than in the Second Lebanon War, which resulted in heavy casualties. "This will be a much more fierce and powerful response from Israel, with less constraints and limitations," Conricus states.
Israel, the US, and the UK have strengthened their defensive and offensive capacities. Following an emergency meeting by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Saudi Arabia, Iran's Foreign Minister vowed a measured response to Haniyeh's assassination.
Hezbollah: The Looming Threat in a Potential Conflict with Iran
While the OIC did not endorse Iranian military action, it condemned Israel for the attack. Iran has escalated threats against Israel, with an estimated three times the force of its previous missile and drone attack in April.
Conricus speculates that Iran's delay in retaliation reflects its unfamiliarity with direct combat. "They are being careful and trying to calculate what the Israeli response will be," he says.
Hezbollah: The Looming Threat in a Potential Conflict with Iran
Tehran's position for a confrontation with Israel and its Western allies now extends beyond proxy fighters. "They have to really fight," Conricus asserts, "and the Iranians are not used to fighting for themselves."
