Despite escalating tensions, experts believe that Iran and Hezbollah are unlikely to initiate a full-scale conflict with Israel. U.S. military assets in the region may have played a role in this shift in sentiment, but experts emphasize that other factors, such as domestic instability and international diplomatic pressure, are also at play.
Following the alleged assassination of a senior Hamas leader, speculation has been rife about the possibility of a broader war in the Middle East, with Iran and Israel as potential adversaries. However, experts now suggest that both Iran and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group, are reluctant to engage in a full-scale conflict with Israel.
This assessment stems from several factors. Firstly, U.S. military assets in the region have been boosted in recent weeks, including the deployment of F-22 Raptors and other advanced weaponry. This has served as a deterrent to Iran, which is wary of provoking a military confrontation with the United States.
Iran and Hezbollah Hesitant to Engage in Conflict with Israel, Experts Suggest
"Khamenei sees a glorified military parade more than a credible military threat, and that will continue to be true until he's proven wrong," said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "It's not sustainable over the long run to be held hostage to the Islamic Republic of Iran and its terror proxies."
Furthermore, Iran is facing domestic instability and economic challenges, which make it less likely to pursue an aggressive foreign policy. Additionally, Hezbollah is contending with an unstable political situation in Lebanon, where it is a major political actor. The potential for domestic unrest and international condemnation are further disincentives for Iran and Hezbollah to engage in a conflict with Israel.
Iran and Hezbollah Hesitant to Engage in Conflict with Israel, Experts Suggest
The United States and its allies have also been actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to prevent a major escalation. They have urged Iran to refrain from any attacks on Israel and have warned of severe consequences if it does.
Some experts believe that the repositioning of U.S. assets in the region may have contributed to Iran's decision to reconsider its options. However, others argue that the impact of this deployment has been overstated.
Iran and Hezbollah Hesitant to Engage in Conflict with Israel, Experts Suggest
"In general, the notion of surging within the past week is more press release than reality," said Goldberg. "The ships already surged are the same ships you'd want to defend against an Iranian missile strike."
Regardless of the exact impact of U.S. military assets, it is clear that a combination of factors, including diplomatic pressure, domestic instability, and the potential for Israeli retaliation, has led Iran and Hezbollah to adopt a more cautious approach.
Iran and Hezbollah Hesitant to Engage in Conflict with Israel, Experts Suggest
However, experts caution that the situation remains fluid and that a miscalculation or provocative action by any party could still lead to a wider conflict.
"We're in a very delicate situation right now," said Matt McInnis, a visiting fellow at the Institute for the Study of War. "I think the key thing right now is for all parties to stay calm and avoid any further provocations."
Iran and Hezbollah Hesitant to Engage in Conflict with Israel, Experts Suggest
