Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate by early August, but Nate Silver's election model suggests she may face an Electoral College disadvantage despite being favored in the popular vote.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, faces a critical decision in choosing her running mate, with a deadline of early August for the announcement. While Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, a new election model by statistician Nate Silver suggests she may be an underdog in the Electoral College, raising concerns of a repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections.
Silver's model, released on Substack after Harris became the presumptive nominee, indicates that although Harris has a slight advantage in the popular vote over former President Donald Trump, she is at a disadvantage in the Electoral College. He attributes this to a trend of Democrats winning the popular vote but losing in the Electoral College, as seen in the 2000 and 2016 elections.
Kamala Harris Considers VP Decision, Faces Electoral College Challenge
Despite the Electoral College challenge, Harris may be in a better position than former President Joe Biden was when he was the incumbent challenger in 2020. Biden had a 27% chance of beating Trump before he withdrew from the race, while Harris currently has a higher probability of victory.
Harris's selection of a running mate is crucial, as it could influence the outcome of the election. Potential candidates who have been campaigning on behalf of the vice president include Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Kamala Harris Considers VP Decision, Faces Electoral College Challenge
Democrats have united behind Harris's candidacy after Biden announced his withdrawal and endorsed his vice president. Silver notes that Harris "will give Democrats a fighting chance" in the election.
However, the Electoral College hurdle remains a significant concern for Democrats. Silver explains that Biden's 2020 victory demonstrated a significant "Electoral College-popular vote gap," as he narrowly won several states despite winning the popular vote. Harris, according to Silver's model, faces a slightly wider popular vote-Electoral College gap than Biden did.
Kamala Harris Considers VP Decision, Faces Electoral College Challenge
Silver's accurate predictions in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections underscore the importance of his model. His assessment of Harris's chances highlights the challenges she faces in securing both the popular vote and the Electoral College votes necessary for victory.
As Harris prepares to choose her running mate, she must navigate a complex political landscape while attempting to address the Electoral College disadvantage. Her decision and the subsequent campaign will be closely watched as the race for the presidency intensifies.
