CNN data reporter Harry Enten warns that Vice President Kamala Harris' current poll numbers in key battleground states put her in the "danger zone" regarding her chances of winning the electoral college.
CNN's Harry Enten has raised concerns about Vice President Kamala Harris' poll numbers in seven key swing states, noting that she is currently in the "danger zone" based on her chances of winning the electoral college.
According to Enten, Harris holds a 2.5-point lead in the average national poll, but her margin narrows significantly to just 0.3 points in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Kamala Harris' Poll Numbers Sound Alarm in Swing States
"The bottom line is, in those seven key battleground states, it’s a significantly tighter race than it is nationally," Enten said, highlighting the discrepancy between Harris' national and swing-state polling.
Enten emphasized that while Harris leads former President Trump in most national polls, her chances of winning the electoral college are not as clear-cut.
Kamala Harris' Poll Numbers Sound Alarm in Swing States
"Harris' chances if she wins the popular vote by two to three points, that chance she wins the Electoral College is only 53%. The bottom line is, you have to get all the way north to about three to four points for Harris to have a clear, clear, clear chance, the majority, the clear majority chance of winning the Electoral College," Enten explained.
If Harris wins by less than two points, Enten said, her chances of winning the electoral college drop to a mere 23%.
Kamala Harris' Poll Numbers Sound Alarm in Swing States
"Right now, Harris, is right now in that danger zone where, basically, about half the time, given the popular vote margin nationally, she would win," Enten said.
Enten pointed out that while Harris has a 70% chance of winning the popular vote, her chances of winning the electoral college are only around 50%.
"So we could be heading towards one of these splits that we saw in 2016 and in 2000, whereby one candidate, Kamala Harris, wins in the popular vote, but loses in the Electoral College," Enten said.
He added that "there's about a 20% chance that Kamala Harris wins the popular vote, but actually loses in the Electoral College."
Enten's analysis comes on the heels of a poll released Sunday that found Harris had narrowed Trump's lead in Iowa, a state he won by 9 points in both 2016 and 2020.
Despite Harris' recent gains in Iowa, Enten cautions against complacency, noting that Trump has historically been underestimated in polling.
"If you're a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we've seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ball game based upon where he is right now," Enten said in early August.
The upcoming elections are shaping up to be a close contest, with Harris' poll numbers in swing states posing a significant challenge to her chances of securing the presidency.
