Based on his "Keys to the White House" formula, renowned historian Allan Lichtman believes that Vice President Kamala Harris will emerge victorious in the upcoming presidential election.
Renowned American University historian Allan Lichtman has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States, based on his "Keys to the White House" formula. Lichtman, who has correctly forecasted the outcome of nine out of the last ten presidential elections, outlined the reasons behind his latest prediction in an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital.
Lichtman's formula, developed in collaboration with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, analyzes presidential elections dating back to 1860 and assigns a series of "keys" to determine the likelihood of incumbent party success or failure. If six or more of these keys favor the opposition party, they are predicted as the winners.
Kamala Harris Predicted as 2024 Presidential Election Winner by American University Historian
According to Lichtman, the Democrats, represented by Harris, are predicted to lose at most five keys. The loss of the incumbency key, due to President Biden's decision to not run for re-election, was initially a concern. However, the Democrats' subsequent rallying around Harris preserved the "contest key," which requires no serious challenge to the incumbent-party nomination.
Lichtman also credits Harris with dampening enthusiasm for protests, which has helped salvage the "social unrest key." He believes that having Harris as the face of the campaign, rather than Biden, has reduced the potential for widespread demonstrations.
Kamala Harris Predicted as 2024 Presidential Election Winner by American University Historian
Lichtman's prediction is based on the following key factors:
1. **Party Mandate:** No
Kamala Harris Predicted as 2024 Presidential Election Winner by American University Historian
2. **Incumbency:** No
3. **Third Party:** No
Kamala Harris Predicted as 2024 Presidential Election Winner by American University Historian
4. **Short-Term Economy:** Yes
5. **Long-Term Economy:** Yes
6. **Policy Change:** Yes
7. **Social Unrest:** No
8. **Scandal:** No
9. **Foreign/Military Failure:** No
10. **Foreign/Military Success:** No
11. **Incumbent Charisma:** No
12. **Challenger Charisma:** Yes
Lichtman's predictions have garnered widespread attention and have often gone against the prevailing narrative. In 2016, he was among the few experts to forecast Donald Trump's victory.
While his formula has a strong track record, Lichtman cautions that it is not infallible and unexpected events could still alter the outcome. However, based on the current circumstances, he believes Harris is well-positioned to break barriers and become the first woman President of the United States in November 2024.
