A senior political data reporter predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris may emerge victorious in the election if she continues to gain support among non-college-educated White voters who form the core of former President Trump's base.
CNN's senior political data reporter Harry Enten has sparked discussion with his analysis of Kamala Harris's growing popularity among a crucial demographic that played a pivotal role in Trump's 2016 election triumph. Enten, citing recent polls, maintains that Harris's success in attracting this demographic, known as non-college-educated White voters, could significantly increase her chances of winning the presidency.
Kamala Harris's Rise With Trump's Base Could Secure Election Victory
In a video shared on the X platform, Enten delved into the shifting dynamics of the electorate, particularly regarding Trump's base. He observed that Trump's support among this group has been waning, opening up an opportunity for Harris to make inroads.
"White working-class voters, White voters without a college degree," Enten explained, "that is Donald Trump's core group. That was the reason why he was able to break down that giant blue wall, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin in the Great Lakes."
Kamala Harris's Rise With Trump's Base Could Secure Election Victory
The polls Enten referenced show that Harris is outperforming Joe Biden's numbers among Trump's White working-class voters. Enten emphasized that these improvements could prove crucial in securing a Democratic victory.
"Look, Donald Trump's still leads, but look at that margin. It has shrunk significantly, it's 25 points back in May. It has now 14 points now here in August. Nearly been sliced by half," Enten said. "Those numbers that Harris is putting up amongst that group right now are actually slightly better than Joe Biden did four years ago amongst those voters in those key states, those are the types of numbers that Kamala Harris needs to put up in order to win."
Kamala Harris's Rise With Trump's Base Could Secure Election Victory
The conventional wisdom surrounding Harris's appeal among White working-class voters has been challenged by these findings, as Enten acknowledged. Nonetheless, he stressed that the narrowing gap between Trump and Harris in this demographic is significant, especially considering the pivotal role these voters play not only in the blue wall states but also across the broader electorate.
"Non-college Whites are a key group across the board. They are a plurality of voters in the electorate," Enten said. "When you compare them with college-educated Whites, or if you compare them with African Americans and Hispanics, and especially in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, look at that. They're the majority of voters. The fact that Harris is closing in on Trump with them is the big reason why she has those advantages."
Kamala Harris's Rise With Trump's Base Could Secure Election Victory
Susan Wiles, a former Trump campaign strategist, has previously downplayed the importance of Trump's White working-class base, suggesting a shift in strategy toward appealing to other demographic groups. However, Enten's analysis suggests that Harris's focus on this key demographic could prove highly effective in securing a Democratic victory.
