Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's historic visit to Ukraine comes a month and a half after his controversial trip to Russia. Analysts suggest the visit is an attempt to strike a neutral stance, despite India's close ties to Russia and its reluctance to criticize the Ukraine invasion.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to Ukraine on Friday is a historic one, marking the first by an Indian prime minister in over 30 years. However, the visit comes at a time when India's position on the Ukraine conflict has drawn scrutiny.
Modi's Ukraine Visit: Balancing Neutrality and Russia Ties amid War
In July, Modi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, sparking criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy dubbed the meeting a "huge disappointment" and a "devastating blow to peace efforts."
Analysts suggest that Modi's Ukraine visit is an attempt to balance India's ties with both Ukraine and Russia while appearing more neutral. Despite Western pressure, India has refrained from condemning Russia's invasion or voting against it in UN resolutions.
Modi's Ukraine Visit: Balancing Neutrality and Russia Ties amid War
"Modi's visit is designed to some extent to show that New Delhi's strategic orientation remains non-alignment, and as such, to keep balance in its foreign policy," said Derek Grossman, an Indo-Pacific analyst at the RAND Corporation.
India and Russia have maintained strong ties since the Cold War, with Russia remaining a crucial trade and defense partner for India. Around 60% of India's military systems come from Russia, and it gets over 40% of its oil imports from the country.
Trade between the two nations has also seen a sharp increase, reaching nearly $65 billion in the 2023-24 financial year. Russia's importance as a trading partner has grown since the conflict in Ukraine, as Western sanctions have shut off most markets for its exports.
Bilateral trade between India and Ukraine is lower, at about $3 billion before the invasion. However, Modi and Zelenskyy have met on the sidelines of global events, and the Ukrainian foreign minister visited New Delhi earlier this year.
India has also provided humanitarian assistance to Ukraine since the invasion. However, analysts believe Zelenskyy is unlikely to publicly raise the issue of Modi's meeting with Putin during the visit.
The trip is expected to be well-received in the West, which has been critical of Modi's meeting with Putin. For Modi, the visit is an opportunity to engage with Zelenskyy, secure Indian interests, push back against Russian overreach, and placate the West, according to Grossman.
However, despite the reassurance it may offer the West, it is unlikely to change the perception that India maintains closer ties with Moscow. "Modi's visit will not change this perception," said Chietigj Bajpaee, a researcher at Chatham House.
The Kremlin will be monitoring Modi's visit, but it is unlikely to be concerned unless there are highly critical statements against Russia, Bajpaee said. India has generally tried to avoid involvement in resolving the Ukraine conflict and has refrained from presenting a peace plan.
