Polling guru Nate Silver has lowered his forecast for Kamala Harris's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election, following the release of a New York Times/Siena College poll that showed her trailing Donald Trump by 1 percentage point.
Polling guru Nate Silver has downgraded his forecast for Kamala Harris's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election, following the release of a New York Times/Siena College poll that showed her trailing Donald Trump by 1 percentage point.
The poll, which was conducted from August 29-September 4, found that Trump leads Harris by 49% to 48% among registered voters. This is the first poll since Harris became the Democratic nominee to show Trump leading the race.
Nate Silver Downgrades Kamala Harris's Chances of Winning, Citing NYT Poll
Silver's FiveThirtyEight election forecast model had previously given Harris a 47.3% chance of winning the Electoral College. However, after factoring in the results of the NYT/Siena College poll, his model now gives Harris a 36% chance of winning.
Silver said in a blog post that the NYT/Siena College poll was "excellent news" for Trump and "dangerous territory" for Harris. He noted that the poll found that 47% of voters said Harris is "too liberal or progressive" on key policy issues, compared to just 38% who said Trump is "too conservative."
Nate Silver Downgrades Kamala Harris's Chances of Winning, Citing NYT Poll
Silver also said that Harris's decision to select Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate was a missed opportunity to signal that she is moving towards the center. He said that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro, and that this was an argument in Shapiro's favor.
Silver said that Harris still has a chance to win the election, but that she will need to perform well in the upcoming debates and convince voters that she is not too liberal.
Nate Silver Downgrades Kamala Harris's Chances of Winning, Citing NYT Poll
The NYT/Siena College poll is one of the most highly rated polls in the country, and its results are likely to have a significant impact on the race. However, it is important to note that polls can be wrong, and the election is still a long way away.
