Renowned elections analyst Nate Silver's latest election forecast predicts a widening lead for former President Trump over Kamala Harris in the upcoming presidential election.
Nate Silver, the esteemed elections analyst and statistician, has released his latest election forecast, revealing that former President Trump has gained ground in the presidential race against Kamala Harris. According to Silver's nuanced election forecast model, Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris' odds, meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.
Silver's forecast indicates that the race is still within the toss-up range, but Trump's chances of victory are at their highest point since July 30th. He attributes this shift to the lack of a significant post-convention bounce for Harris, coupled with recent polls showing her slipping in key battleground states.
Nate Silver's Latest Forecast: Trump Favored to Defeat Harris in November
"The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30," Silver wrote on his Substack. "There's room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately."
Notably, Harris' weakness in Pennsylvania has been flagged by Silver as a potential concern for her campaign. With 19 electoral votes at stake, Pennsylvania is a crucial swing state that could play a decisive role in the outcome of the election.
Nate Silver's Latest Forecast: Trump Favored to Defeat Harris in November
"Last week, I warned that Harris was poised to be a 'slight underdog' in Pennsylvania," Silver said. "Harris is getting killed in PA, which will be a huge problem for her campaign."
Adding to Harris' woes, Silver has also identified Michigan as a potential issue for her campaign, citing a recent decline in polling numbers in the state. Harris currently holds a narrow lead in Michigan, but the erosion of her support should be a cause for concern, Silver argues.
Nate Silver's Latest Forecast: Trump Favored to Defeat Harris in November
"National polls and polls of other swing states are mostly decent for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts a lot in the model," Silver posted on X. "In MI, the polling average has fallen from Harris +3.1 pre-DNC to Harris +1.9 now."
Silver also speculates that Harris' decision to bypass Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate may have hurt her campaign's momentum. He suggests that the lack of enthusiasm surrounding Harris' campaign since the Democratic National Convention is a sign of trouble.
"There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what," Silver said. "Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven't really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer."
While Silver's forecast favors Trump at this stage, he emphasizes that the race is far from over. He cautions against relying too heavily on polls, citing their history of underestimating Trump's support in previous elections.
"If you have the election tomorrow… I think Harris would be a slight favorite," Silver said earlier. "But two things to remember. One, we have three more months to go. There will be more surprises. And two, the polls have been wrong before."
