Despite New York's tradition of favoring Democratic presidential candidates, Republican leaders believe that 2024 could be different, with former President Donald Trump holding a strong chance of winning its 28 electoral votes.
New York has not favored a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan's 1980 upset, but state Republican Party Chair Ed Cox believes that trend is likely to change.
New York Could Turn Red: Republicans Eyeing Trump Victory in Blue State
Cox told Fox News Digital that President Biden's tenure is increasingly showing parallels to that of then-President Carter, and that while New York is a blue state, it is truly "blue-collar blue, not West-Side-Manhattan blue."
He noted that the state has high-profile pockets of progressive strongholds, but New Yorkers overall are "pragmatic" and are experiencing a sense of déjà vu from the run-up to the last time the state shocked the country on Election Day.
New York Could Turn Red: Republicans Eyeing Trump Victory in Blue State
"We have a lot of independents here in New York," Cox said. "And they're the ones who are going to take a look, and they're going to say, ‘Are we going to risk [it]?’"
Cox based his belief in Trump's chances on factors such as New Yorkers' concerns about Biden's foreign policy and the economy, as well as Trump's strong track record in the state during his presidency.
New York Could Turn Red: Republicans Eyeing Trump Victory in Blue State
He also noted that Hispanic and African-American voting blocs in the state are shifting in Trump's favor, as evidenced by the large crowd at Trump's recent Bronx rally.
Cox drew parallels between the current economic situation and the "stagflation" that plagued Carter's presidency, and emphasized the importance of the "It's the economy, stupid" mantra in New York, the business capital of the world.
New York Could Turn Red: Republicans Eyeing Trump Victory in Blue State
While former Rep. Lee Zeldin came close to defeating Gov. Kathy Hochul in the 2022 gubernatorial race, Cox believes that 2024 will be different due to New Yorkers' pragmatism and their tendency to support populist candidates.
He also pointed to the state's history as a meritocratic society, which could favor Trump over Biden as voters make a judgment based on their respective merits after experiencing both administrations.
New York Could Turn Red: Republicans Eyeing Trump Victory in Blue State
Despite the state's traditional Democratic leanings, Cox believes that Trump has a strong chance of winning New York's electoral votes in 2024, a victory that would mark a significant shift in the state's political landscape.
