The NFL Draft odds market proved to be an unpredictable landscape for sportsbooks, with several unexpected picks and prop bets causing them to lose out to the public betting masses.
The NFL Draft odds market is a unique arena where bettors often hold an advantage over sportsbooks. This is due in part to the inherent unpredictability of the event, where unforeseen circumstances and surprising picks can disrupt expectations. This year's Draft was no exception, with several instances where sportsbooks found themselves on the losing end.
One of the most shocking developments was the selection of Michael Penix Jr. by the Atlanta Falcons with the eighth overall pick. This move caught oddsmakers off guard, as Penix was projected to go later in the first round or early in the second. The Falcons' decision to take a quarterback despite recently signing Kirk Cousins to a lucrative contract left many scratching their heads.
"We got killed on Penix going in the top 10," said Scott Shelton of BetMGM Nevada.
Penix's high draft position had a ripple effect on other prop bets. Caesars Sports had set his Over/Under draft position at 32.5, with the Under being a solid favorite. However, the expectation was that he would go in the first round, but not in the top 10.
"We had extremely heavy juice to the Under, at -400, which means there was a 75% chance of Penix going in the first round. So we were expecting the first round, but we were not expecting top 10," said Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sports. "That was a good result for bettors."
BetMGM Nevada also offered a prop on whether Penix would be a top-10 pick, priced at +2500. This long-shot bet attracted enough action to inflict significant damage on the sportsbook.
The early selection of six quarterbacks in the first 12 picks also surprised oddsmakers. BetMGM Nevada expected McCarthy to go early, but once the Penix pick happened, they knew that the prop of Over/Under 4.5 QBs selected in the first round would go Over. This outcome favored the public betting masses.
Caesars Sports expressed satisfaction with its modest losses in Round 1, outside of quarterback-related props. Feazel noted that the Draft is not a significant moneymaker for the sportsbook.
Circa Sports, on the other hand, lost out on the first-round QB flood. However, they did benefit from the seven wide receivers who went in the first round. But this was offset by their losses on other props, including the Under 13.5 on the draft position for defensive tackle Byron Murphy II.
In the end, Circa Sports came out in the red on NFL Draft odds.
"We lost again. Shocking? Nope. It’s par for the course with this tomfoolery. But we had fun booking it," said Jeff Benson, operations director at Circa Sports.
The NFL Draft odds market once again proved to be a challenging landscape for sportsbooks, where the unpredictability of the event gave bettors an edge.
