Pittsburgh Pirates' top draft pick Paul Skenes dominated the Chicago Cubs in his second MLB start, showcasing remarkable velocity and control. However, concerns about his durability and the impact of high pitch count on a young pitcher linger.
In a whirlwind rise to the majors, Paul Skenes has already etched his name in the history books. The Pittsburgh Pirates' first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft made his second MLB start on Friday, against the Chicago Cubs, and the 21-year-old right-hander delivered a performance that lived up to the hype and raised some eyebrows.
Skenes tossed six no-hit innings, striking out an astonishing 11 Cubs batters, including the first seven he faced. His fastball averaged 99.3 mph, with 12 heaters registering 100 mph or above. Skenes' dominance brought to mind Stephen Strasburg's historic MLB debut in 2010, further solidifying his status as one of the most highly touted pitching prospects in recent memory.
However, beneath the surface of Skenes' dazzling performance lies a simmering concern: his velocity and pitch count. The young pitcher's reliance on his blistering fastball has drawn comparisons to other young, hard-throwing pitchers who have succumbed to Tommy John surgery.
John Smoltz, a Hall of Fame pitcher and FOX Sports MLB analyst, has been vocal in his criticism of the current emphasis on velocity and spin rate in pitching. He believes that pitchers are sacrificing durability in pursuit of high pitch counts and lofty strikeout totals.
"There's not one easy answer," Smoltz said. "But if he's breezing and he looks good — and he's repeating his mechanics — I don't think you can set a limit on him."
Smoltz emphasized the importance of monitoring Skenes' mechanics and stress load to prevent injuries. He also believes that the Pirates should resist the urge to overhaul Skenes' unique arm angle and delivery, which provides an uncommonly low release point for his fastball.
"In any sport, like a funky golf swing — you repeat it over and over again, you're going to have the opportunity to be successful. It's the same thing with pitching," Smoltz added.
Despite the concerns, Smoltz believes that Skenes has the potential to be a special talent if he stays healthy. He pointed to Skenes' experience pitching deep into games in college, including throwing 130 pitches in a single outing.
"The biggest thing is now, he gets to learn on the job," Smoltz said. "This year is a very important year for him. He's not a high school guy. He's a college guy, he should be able to withstand some of those things that you need to do to go through a year."
As Skenes continues to navigate the demands of the MLB stage, the Pirates will face the challenge of balancing his development with the need to protect his long-term health. The young pitcher's dazzling debut has ignited both hopes and concerns, and only time will tell if he can sustain his remarkable performance and avoid the pitfalls that have plagued other young, hard-throwing pitchers.
