CNN's Harry Enten analyzes Biden's weak polling numbers in the Democratic primary, comparing them to other presidents in modern history.
CNN's senior data reporter, Harry Enten, recently delivered disheartening news for President Biden's re-election prospects, noting that Biden's primary polling numbers are historically weak.
"Everyone's saying that Donald Trump's doing weak, weak, weak," Enten stated. "It's actually Joe Biden in my mind in the primaries, that's doing weak, weak, weak, at least relative to history, because right now he's getting 87% of that primary vote for an incumbent."
Enten's analysis reveals that Biden currently has the lowest polling numbers of any presidential incumbent in their primary race since former President George H.W. Bush in 1992, who subsequently lost that election to Bill Clinton.
Biden's 87% support among Democratic primary voters falls significantly short of other recent incumbents, including George W. Bush (98% in 2004), Barack Obama (90% in 2012), and Donald Trump (94% in 2020).
Enten's assessment contrasts with the perception of former President Trump's weaker numbers in the Republican primary. However, Enten maintains that Trump's current polling is strong for a non-incumbent candidate after the withdrawal of his opponents.
"This is actually a very strong performance for a non-incumbent after his opponents dropped out," Enten asserted.
Enten compared Trump's performance to previous non-incumbent candidates, noting that Mitt Romney received 71% of the votes in 2012, Trump received 74% in 2016, and Biden received 77% in 2020. Trump's 81% support in 2023 exceeds all of these figures.
Biden's low polling numbers have raised concerns among some liberals and anti-Trump Republicans, who question whether Biden can secure the Democratic nomination.
Former Republican Ohio Governor John Kasich, who endorsed Biden in 2020 and 2024, expressed his belief that Biden is likely to be replaced as the nominee, citing conversations with individuals and the public's perception of the economy.
Enten's analysis highlights the challenges facing President Biden's re-election bid, as his primary polling numbers fall behind those of his predecessors and suggest the potential for a contested nomination process within the Democratic Party.
