CNN's data guru predicts that if former President Trump outperforms current polling by one point, he will triumph in the presidential election against Vice President Kamala Harris.
The presidential race has tightened significantly, according to CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten, who predicts that former President Trump could emerge victorious if he outperforms current polling by a mere one percentage point.
"The presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is so close that if Trump outperforms current polling by one point, he will win the White House," Enten asserted.
Presidential Race Tightens: Trump Could Win If He Outperforms Polling
Recent political headwinds have shifted the landscape in eight close House races around the country. With less than two months until Election Day, Democrats are experiencing a surge in enthusiasm for their new presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to a nonpartisan analysis by the Cook Political Report, six races have shifted in Democrats' favor, while only two are looking brighter for Republicans. Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has been tirelessly campaigning for fellow GOP lawmakers across the country, aiming to maintain his slim four-seat majority in the House.
Presidential Race Tightens: Trump Could Win If He Outperforms Polling
Two of the races that have moved towards the left are in districts that President Biden won in 2020 but are currently held by GOP representatives Don Bacon, R-Neb., and Michelle Steele, R-Calif. Both their ratings have shifted from "lean Republican" to "toss up."
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, who flipped her seat from red to blue in 2020, has seen her race move from a "likely" victory for Republicans to leaning in their favor.
Presidential Race Tightens: Trump Could Win If He Outperforms Polling
Three Democratic seats — those held by representatives Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, and Henry Cuellar, D-Texas — have also become safer for the left.
Moskowitz and Cuellar's race predictions shifted to solidly and "likely" blue, respectively, while Kaptur's seat is now leaning Democratic after being classified a "toss-up."
Presidential Race Tightens: Trump Could Win If He Outperforms Polling
Democrats could potentially lose a seat in the House, with the race for Rep. Mary Peltola's seat becoming a "toss-up" in Alaska, a state that former President Trump won in 2020.
Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, which Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., is vacating to run in the nearby 4th Congressional District, is now "likely" to be held by Republicans after her departure.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the House Democrats' campaign arm, celebrated Cook's latest updates on Friday.
"House Democrats continue to build momentum and grassroots enthusiasm across the country, while House GOP incumbents and candidates continue to fall flat on their faces," said DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton in a statement.
Prior to Biden's sudden decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race in late July, Republicans appeared poised to potentially win both the White House and Congress.
Since then, Democrats have enjoyed a surge in enthusiasm for their new candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, despite her lack of extensive policy platforms and limited unscripted media appearances.
However, at least one House Republican who spoke with Fox News Digital this week remained optimistic about the GOP's chances of victory.
"If these predictive sites are to be believed, maybe Donald Trump's got a 42% chance to be president. We've got a, you know, 60-some percent chance to take the Senate and a 55% chance to keep the House. So, that's a better hand of cards than we're holding today," the GOP lawmaker said.
"I would say this. If Donald Trump gets elected, he will likely usher in a Republican House and Senate along with him."
Last month, House GOP leaders expressed concerns about being out-raised by Democrats. Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., head of the House GOP campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), confirmed sounding alarm bells in comments to Fox Business in August.
"That's true, and we've seen the fundraising on the Democrat side just go through the roof. And so I've warned my candidates and my colleagues in the Congress that we've got to step up and continue doing the things we need to do to win," Hudson said.
He reported a positive response from House Republicans, adding that "everyone stepped up."
