Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski analyzes the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, highlighting its third Easter, the passage of the foreign aid package, and expectations for the upcoming NATO summit. Amid Putin's recent inauguration and DNI Avril Haines' warning that the war is unlikely to end soon, Sikorski delves into Putin's mindset and predictions for Russian actions, including a major counteroffensive, assassination attempts on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, and intensified non-kinetic confrontation with the United States.
Russian forces will likely initiate a major counteroffensive campaign in northeastern Ukraine, possibly after the Victory Day Parade. Aiming to capitalize on Ukraine's manpower, hardware, and ammunition shortages, the Russians will attempt to break through front lines by this summer. To this end, Moscow is preparing 100,000 troops and increasing defense spending by 70% in 2024. Putin believes momentum is on Russia's side and is concerned about French President Macron's threat to deploy troops if Russian forces break through.
Russian intelligence services will likely intensify their hunt for Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, who has been on the target list since the invasion's start and has survived multiple assassination attempts. Russia's targeted assassination program allows intelligence services to eliminate threats to the Russian state, and placing Zelenskyy on the "wanted list" signifies the Kremlin's priority in capturing or killing him. With his presidential term officially ending on May 20, Russian efforts may intensify on or after that date.
Russia will escalate its non-kinetic confrontation with Washington, despite fearing direct war with the U.S. and NATO. Moscow views erosion of its strategic buffer zone, which includes Ukraine, as a threat to its security. Russian aircraft have breached the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, testing U.S. responses and signaling the military's readiness for a full-scale war over post-Soviet regions. Russian intelligence services will also likely increase efforts to arrest U.S. citizens in Russia to pressure the Biden administration and accumulate candidates for prisoner swaps.
Contrary to claims by some Washington politicians, Putin will not invade a NATO nation, as it would trigger NATO Article 5 Collective Defense. Aware of Russia's conventional inferiority, Putin uses Russia's nuclear trump card to intimidate the West but would not intentionally trigger a conflict with NATO's superior war-fighting capabilities. Multiple U.S. intelligence assessments support this conclusion.
Russia has suffered significant military losses, with over 300,000 casualties and thousands of equipment losses. The military faces a multi-year recovery, attrition issues, and personnel and morale challenges. Similarly, the Russian economy has been severely impacted by sanctions and isolation, with significant declines in GDP and exports.
As the Ukraine war enters its third Easter, Putin's next moves are likely to include a major counteroffensive, intensified efforts to assassinate Zelenskyy, and increased non-kinetic confrontation with the United States. However, Putin is unlikely to invade a NATO nation or initiate a full-scale war with the entire NATO alliance. His actions will be tempered by Russia's military and economic limitations, as well as the deterrent threat of NATO's collective defense. Understanding Putin's mindset and future strategies is crucial for anticipating Russia's actions and developing effective responses to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
