Former CIA station chief Dan Hoffman warns that terror cells in the Middle East are running a sophisticated campaign, taking advantage of the security vacuum created by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The U.S. intelligence failure in the lead-up to the Afghanistan withdrawal has not only led to disastrous consequences for the region but has also created a security vacuum that U.S. adversaries are exploiting.
China and Russia, in particular, have capitalized on the situation, strengthening ties with the Taliban and expanding their influence in South Asia and the Middle East. This geopolitical maneuvering is fueled by anti-Western sentiment and economic interests.
Taliban Operations 'a Head Start on Us' Post-Afghanistan Withdrawal
Former CIA station chief Dan Hoffman highlights the Taliban's ongoing campaign, noting that terror cells in the Middle East are gaining a "significant and very sophisticated" head start.
"When we turn our back to Afghanistan...we are leaving a vacuum there," said Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. "Someone else is going to fill it."
Taliban Operations 'a Head Start on Us' Post-Afghanistan Withdrawal
Despite the Taliban's lack of international recognition, countries like China and Russia are establishing diplomatic relations with the extremist group. China has hinted at support for the Belt and Road Initiative, while Russia considers removing the Taliban from its terrorist list.
Moscow's interest in Afghanistan stems from its anti-Western stance and its quest to alleviate economic sanctions by expanding trade in the region. The Taliban's opposition to Western ideology also aligns with Russia's geopolitical goals.
Taliban Operations 'a Head Start on Us' Post-Afghanistan Withdrawal
Pakistan's role in the Afghanistan conflict has been complex, with suspicions of covert aid to the Taliban despite its cooperation with the U.S. against insurgent groups. China has also sought Pakistan's partnership through the Belt and Road Initiative, expanding its economic interests in the region.
Rubin stresses the need for a comprehensive understanding of the Afghanistan situation, acknowledging the failure to adequately assess the Afghan government's capacity and the Taliban's local alliances.
Taliban Operations 'a Head Start on Us' Post-Afghanistan Withdrawal
"The Taliban were running roughshod over us, and our intelligence wasn't picking up a thing," Rubin said. "We were looking at Afghanistan through the lens of idealism and ideology."
The fall of Afghanistan, Rubin explains, was precipitated by the Taliban's momentum and defections, as local governors and district chiefs had been aligning with them for years. Afghan families often sent sons to both the Afghan National Security Forces and the Taliban to maintain connections and protect their interests.
Taliban Operations 'a Head Start on Us' Post-Afghanistan Withdrawal
U.S. misunderstanding of Afghan realities, including the constant threat of war and the need for security, led to the belief that the Afghan government could stand alone without U.S. support. However, in the face of a resurgent Taliban, Afghans sought the safety of the "strong horse."
Rubin criticizes both the Trump and Biden administrations for failing to adjust withdrawal plans despite open source intelligence indicating Taliban gains. He attributes this to "ego" and "exhaustion" rather than sound judgment.
Taliban Operations 'a Head Start on Us' Post-Afghanistan Withdrawal
