As China rapidly modernizes its military, the U.S. Air Force faces a significant challenge to maintain its competitiveness. Despite the service's commitment to developing new sixth-generation aircraft and stealth bombers, budget constraints and delays threaten to leave the U.S. vulnerable in the face of China's growing power.
Over the past three decades, the U.S. Air Force has struggled to modernize its fleets of aircraft and missiles. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Air Force's only bomber modernization program, the B-2, was abruptly halted. The top-end fighter modernization program, the F-22, was cut in half and ultimately terminated. The replacements for the C-141 and F-16/A-10 aircraft, the C-17 and Joint Strike Fighter program, respectively, experienced birthing problems and delays.
As the Air Force fought the war on terror with its aging Reagan-era forces, a strategic adversary emerged – China. This adversary required the Air Force to recapitalize its fleets quickly. However, the Air Force's budget problems have persisted, hindering its modernization efforts. The service has attempted to divest older aircraft to fund new ones, but Congress's failure to allow timely divestiture has delayed recapitalization programs and increased operating costs.
The Air Force's Dire Need for Modernization: China's Looming Advantage
Today's Air Force is the smallest and oldest it has ever been, facing a desperate need for recapitalization across the board. Congress has not adequately recognized this reality, failing to provide the Air Force with sufficient tools to compete with China on the modern, AI-powered battlefield.
In 2021, American security leaders were stunned by the unveiling of China's new sixth-generation fleet, equipped with AI-enabled drone wingmen and state-of-the-art technology. While doubts remain about China's ability to operate its new equipment effectively, the U.S. has its own operating problems: its aging fleet was only available for operations 51% of the time last year.
The Air Force's Dire Need for Modernization: China's Looming Advantage
Recognizing the importance of outpacing China, the Air Force committed to producing its own new stealth bomber and sixth-generation Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter. However, the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act imposed a hard cap on the Defense Department's budget, shrinking the Air Force's fleet by nearly 6%.
Air Force leaders have recently suggested that abandoning NGAD could become one of their "difficult choices" in the face of budget constraints. The NGAD program is one of the most important measures to protect America's competitiveness with the Chinese military, and it should not be compromised.
The Air Force's Dire Need for Modernization: China's Looming Advantage
As the U.S. Air Force's fleet dwindles, China's continues to grow rapidly. China has boosted its defense spending by at least 7% each year for several years and is now acquiring high-end weapons systems five to six times faster than the U.S.
This rapid modernization has put America in jeopardy, as revealed in the Department of Defense's January National Defense Industrial Strategy report. The report found that the U.S. industrial base is not sufficient to meet military production needs at the required speed and scale.
The Air Force's Dire Need for Modernization: China's Looming Advantage
A 2023 Pentagon report also highlighted that China is on the fast track to surpassing the Air Force's capabilities. NGAD was specifically designed to reverse this trajectory and maintain the U.S.'s technological edge.
If budget constraints force the delay or curtailment of the NGAD program, China could seize the opportunity to leap ahead in sixth-generation AI warfare. As Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has stated, "Time is my greatest concern... We are in a race for military technological superiority with a capable pacing challenge in China. Our cushion is gone. We are out of time."
The Air Force's Dire Need for Modernization: China's Looming Advantage
The Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act addresses the national security threat posed by China and includes funding to protect the NGAD program. However, Congress must match its authorizations with equivalent budgets.
The Air Force faces a crucial decision: prioritize the NGAD program or fall behind China in the race for military superiority. The consequences of choosing the latter are dire, as America's security and global leadership are at stake.
The Air Force's Dire Need for Modernization: China's Looming Advantage
