The release of Western hostages from Russian captivity is a short-term triumph for the Biden administration, but it comes at a significant long-term cost. By trading Russian spies and criminals for wrongly imprisoned Americans and dissidents, the deal encourages Russia and other authoritarian regimes to take more hostages in the future.
The prisoner swap orchestrated by the Biden administration, which facilitated the release of American and European hostages from Russia, marks a rare diplomatic success in the midst of heightened tensions between the West and Russia. However, the deal carries substantial hidden costs, potentially setting a dangerous precedent that could embolden hostage-taking by authoritarian regimes.
The Biden Administration's Prisoner Swap: A Pyrrhic Victory
The scale of this prisoner swap is unprecedented in recent history, involving numerous individuals and multiple countries. The release of former Marine Paul Whelan and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, wrongfully imprisoned in Russia on fabricated charges, is a cause for celebration.
In exchange for Whelan and Gershkovich, the United States and its allies have released Vadim Krasikov, an FSB hitman serving a life sentence in Germany for assassinating a Chechen asylee. Krasikov was undoubtedly the primary objective Moscow sought in this deal.
The Biden Administration's Prisoner Swap: A Pyrrhic Victory
The exchange also included the release of four Russian "illegals" (spies posing as foreigners) imprisoned in Slovenia, Norway, and Poland, as well as three U.S.-held individuals accused of cybercrime or smuggling American military-related goods.
While the White House hails the swap as a triumph, it inadvertently creates an incentive for further hostage-taking. Putin's strategic pursuit of prisoner swaps to secure the release of his agents while exploiting Western eagerness to "trade up" for innocent hostages is a calculated tactic.
The Biden Administration's Prisoner Swap: A Pyrrhic Victory
By breaking former Secretary of State George Shultz's unwavering principle of hostage negotiation – "don't pay for hostages" – Biden has weakened an established international norm against hostage-taking. This action encourages Iran, terrorist organizations, and others to adopt similar tactics.
The current prisoner trade and its predecessors, including the Whelan-Bout exchange and the Griner-Bout swap, set a dangerous precedent. They erode international norms and entice adversaries to capture and hold Westerners hostage, betting on similar concessions in exchange for their release.
Moreover, the latest deal demonstrates Moscow's mastery of hostage-trading with Washington. Having failed to secure Whelan's release in exchange for Viktor Bout, the Kremlin seized Gershkovich as a new hostage, ultimately obtaining Krasikov's freedom.
The Biden administration's prisoner swap not only exposes the high cost of securing the release of unjustly imprisoned Americans but also creates a substantial risk for future hostage negotiations. The next president will likely inherit a more challenging diplomatic landscape marked by increased hostage-taking and protracted bargaining processes.
In conclusion, while the release of hostages from Russian captivity is welcome news, the Biden administration's prisoner swap comes at a significant price. It undermines international norms against hostage-taking, encourages future victimization, and opens the door to even more challenging hostage negotiations in the years to come.
