With the Kentucky Derby just around the corner, handicapper Chris Fallica shares fascinating insights and betting trends to help you enjoy the big race and potentially cash in.
The Kentucky Derby is upon us, promising an exhilarating day for horse racing enthusiasts and bettors alike. This prestigious race marks the first leg of the Triple Crown and is slated for an exciting post time of 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Before the main event, let's delve into some intriguing betting trends and historical facts that can provide valuable insights for your wagering strategy.
1. **Favoritism and Success:** Eleven of the past 12 Kentucky Derby favorites have landed in the money, with the last favorite to finish outside the top three being Improbable in 2019.
2. **Pletcher's Success with Favorites:** Todd Pletcher has only had one Derby favorite, Always Dreaming, who emerged victorious in 2017 at nearly 5-1 odds.
3. **Unlikely Second-Place Finishes:** In the past 45 years, the Derby has witnessed only two instances where both the favorite and second choice finished in those respective positions.
4. **Secluded Success:** Since Alysheba's victory in 1987, only Real Quiet (1998) has won from post 1, 2, or 3.
5. **Resilience from the Bottom:** Nyquist (2017) and Street Sense (2007) stand out as the only Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners to capture the Kentucky Derby.
6. **Long Shots Making a Mark:** In recent years, the Derby has seen an increase in long-shot winners, with two of the four longest winners in history emerging since 2019.
7. **Asmussen's Struggles:** Despite being the trainer with the most Derby starters (25), Steve Asmussen has yet to secure a victory.
8. **Pletcher's Recent Dip:** Since Audible's third-place finish in 2018, Todd Pletcher's Derby starters have not fared well, with none placing better than fifth.
9. **Mott's Belmont Expertise:** Bill Mott has won two Triple Crown races, but both came in the Belmont Stakes rather than the Kentucky Derby.
10. **Top Three Trends:** In the past 11 years, at least two of the top three betting choices have finished within the top three seven times.
11. **Wood Memorial's Lackluster Derby Record:** The Wood Memorial, a key Derby prep race, has not produced a top-two Derby finisher since 2003.
12. **Pletcher's Top-Four Woes:** Of Pletcher's 15 horses sent off as top-four wagering choices, only five have managed to finish better than seventh.
13. **Chad Brown's Consistent Performers:** Chad Brown's seven Derby starters have consistently placed within the top five, with Zandon's third-place finish in 2022 being the most impressive.
14. **Joel Rosario's Derby Prowess:** Rosario's mounts have an impressive record in the Derby, with eight of his 11 finishers placing fifth or better, including 2013 winner Orb.
15. **Irad Ortiz Jr.'s Derby Debut:** Irad Ortiz Jr. is making his fifth Derby mount, with his best finish being a fourth place with Improbable in 2019.
16. **John Velazquez's Mixed Fortune:** Velazquez has ridden 25 Derby mounts, with only two finishing in the money, raising questions about his effectiveness in the race.
17. **Jose Ortiz's Recent Success:** Ortiz has three superfecta finishes in the Derby over the past five years, including a 35-1 shot Simplification two years ago.
18. **Luis Saez's Derby Struggles:** Despite having 10 career Derby mounts, only one has finished better than seventh, with that being Essential Quality's third-place finish in 2021.
19. **Flavien Prat's Six-Mount Success:** Prat has had six Derby mounts, with five of them hitting the board, including a victory with Country House in 2019.
20. **Tyler Gaffalione's Eventful Derby Rides:** Gaffalione's six Derby mounts have been marked by eventful experiences, but none have finished better than seventh.
These historical trends provide a valuable foundation for understanding the Kentucky Derby's intricacies. While they may not guarantee success, they shed light on potential patterns and trends that can inform your betting decisions. As you watch the Kentucky Derby unfold, remember that even the favorites can face unexpected challenges, while long shots have the potential to create history. So, enjoy the spectacle, embrace the excitement, and let the betting odds enhance your experience.
