Amidst growing concerns over global partnerships between adversarial nations, experts warn that the U.S. and its allies face an unprecedented threat. The recent assessment by the Commission on the National Defense Strategy reveals that the U.S. is ill-prepared for a multi-front war against China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.
The United States finds itself on the brink of a global war, facing a formidable coalition of adversaries united under an axis of "malign partnerships," according to a sobering assessment by a body of non-governmental national security experts. This alarming report, released in late July, has raised concerns that neither the U.S. military nor the public is adequately prepared for a potential World War III.
After decades of reduced defense spending and waning investments in the security sector, Washington, D.C., is found "not prepared" to counter Beijing in open conflict, let alone a multi-front war against China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.
The Looming Shadow of World War III: Experts Sound the Alarm
The commission, composed of Republicans and Democrats who served under the Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama administrations, emphasizes that the lack of preparedness is not solely attributable to any single administration but rather stems from a generational failure to recognize and address the growing danger posed by authoritarian nations.
Europe currently witnesses the largest land war on the continent since 1945, with Russia receiving aid from China, Iran, and North Korea. The Middle East teeters on the brink of a major war between nation states, while the Indo-Pacific region remains a hotbed of potential conflict.
The Looming Shadow of World War III: Experts Sound the Alarm
"There's been a generalized failure across our political class in educating the American public of the severity of these threats and the danger that they represent," lamented Amb. Eric Edelman, vice-chair of the 2024 commission.
The experts highlighted the decline in defense spending, which has fallen from nearly 17% of GDP in 1952 to a mere 3% today. This inadequate investment in security, they emphasize, renders the U.S. incapable of effectively countering adversaries like China.
The Looming Shadow of World War III: Experts Sound the Alarm
War games simulations reveal that the U.S. would exhaust its munitions inventories within three to four weeks in the event of a conflict with Beijing. Anti-ship missiles, for instance, are estimated to last only a few days, resulting in years-long delays to replenish depleted stockpiles.
Edelman clarifies that this does not necessitate a cessation of military aid to Ukraine but stresses that a direct war against China or Russia would be exponentially more costly than a global conflict not seen since the 20th century.
The Looming Shadow of World War III: Experts Sound the Alarm
Preparing for defense serves primarily as a deterrent, Edelman explains. The expenses of defense pale in comparison to the catastrophic costs of war. During World War II, the U.S. devoted over 40% of its GDP to defense, underlining the prolonged nature of modern conflicts.
The experts caution against relying solely on increased defense spending, advocating for a "shift in culture." They point to China's strategic investments over the past decades, which have granted it advantages in technology, resource sourcing, and international influence.
The Looming Shadow of World War III: Experts Sound the Alarm
Increasing isolationism within Republican circles, reminiscent of pre-World War II sentiments, is a cause for concern, experts warn. A change in this mindset is crucial to prevent the U.S. from stumbling into another global war.
"It's going to require leadership, and it's going to require educating the American public," Edelman emphasizes.
The Looming Shadow of World War III: Experts Sound the Alarm
The commission believes that the American people, when properly informed, can make wise decisions about their nation's future. Both the Biden-Harris administration and the Trump campaign have been briefed on the commission's findings, though the former president's dismissive response raises questions about the efficacy of his briefing.
"We are not on the brink of a national crisis – in many ways, we're already deep into a crisis," asserts John Hannah, senior fellow at JINSA.
The Looming Shadow of World War III: Experts Sound the Alarm
The commission has fulfilled its mandate by presenting a stark warning. Now, it is imperative for all stakeholders to take heed and act accordingly. "We do not have our Churchill at the moment," Hannah laments. "The commission on the National Defense Strategy has fulfilled its mission. Now we need everybody else to play their part around the country and in the halls of power in Washington."
