In a tightly contested French election, the right-wing National Rally (RN) is poised to become the largest party in government, reflecting growing voter discontent and posing a significant challenge to President Emmanuel Macron.
France is on the cusp of a political transformation as the right-wing National Rally (RN) prepares to emerge as the leading force in the National Assembly. The first round of elections concluded with RN capturing a significant portion of the vote, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with the current government.
President Macron's so-called "ensemble," a coalition of parties, is facing an uphill battle as RN has gained significant ground. While Macron remains as president until 2027, the National Assembly election is a clear indication of the changing political landscape.
The Rise of RN: France's Right-Wing Rally on the Verge of Power
Initial polling had predicted a dominant victory for RN, but more recent surveys suggest they will fall short of a clear majority. Projections indicate RN could secure between 190 and 220 seats, falling well short of the 289 required to control the assembly.
The New Popular Front alliance is expected to emerge as the second-largest bloc, potentially gaining between 159 and 183 seats. Macron's ensemble trails behind with an estimated 110 to 135 seats.
The Rise of RN: France's Right-Wing Rally on the Verge of Power
Macron has dismissed any possibility of forging an alliance with the left-wing France Unbowed (LFI) party, despite attempts by some candidates to coalesce against RN. Former Prime Minister Edouard Phillippe has even expressed support for a Communist candidate to prevent an RN victory.
RN's roots as the National Front, led by Marine Le Pen's father Jean-Marie, have sparked concerns due to his history of racist and antisemitic remarks. However, Marine Le Pen has gained support among some Jewish voters despite her anti-Islam stance.
The Rise of RN: France's Right-Wing Rally on the Verge of Power
Antisemitism and concerns over radicalization have become pressing issues for French voters. Le Pen's proposal to expel foreigners convicted of crimes or suspected of radicalization has resonated with some.
The election's outcome is likely to result in a hung parliament, requiring alliances to establish a government. The Conservative Party in Britain provides a potential precedent, having regained power through a hung parliament in 2010.
The Rise of RN: France's Right-Wing Rally on the Verge of Power
The government has urged voters to prevent RN from achieving control of the assembly, recognizing the potential consequences of such an outcome. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has emphasized the "responsibility" of voters to block RN's advance.
The second round of voting on July 7 will determine the final distribution of seats in the National Assembly, with RN's performance closely watched as France navigates a shifting political landscape.
