With closing arguments set to begin next week in former President Trump's criminal trial in New York City, the potential consequences for his 2024 presidential ambitions hang in the balance. While some polls suggest a guilty verdict could have a modest impact on his support, veteran political strategists believe it's unlikely to fundamentally alter the race against President Biden. However, a not guilty verdict could boost his narrative of political victimization, but even that outcome carries potential risks.
As the criminal trial against former President Donald Trump nears its conclusion, the stakes for his political future have never been higher. With closing arguments scheduled for early next week, the jury's verdict could have significant implications for Trump's 2024 presidential aspirations.
Trump faces 34 counts of falsifying business records related to payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election to suppress allegations of an affair. The case has garnered widespread attention, with both sides presenting their arguments in a highly publicized trial.
While Trump has repeatedly denied the charges and labeled the trial a "sham," a guilty verdict could potentially jeopardize his chances of regaining the presidency. However, recent polls suggest that such an outcome may not have a major impact on his base of support.
According to a Fox News national poll conducted earlier this month, only 27% of registered voters believe Trump has done nothing seriously wrong. However, among Trump supporters, that number jumps to 54%. Additionally, eight out of 10 Trump supporters surveyed in an ABC News/Ipsos national poll said they would still back him if he was found guilty.
Veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson believes that "a guilty verdict would not fundamentally change the landscape of the race." He compares the potential impact to the infamous "Access Hollywood" video that briefly damaged Trump's chances of winning the 2016 election.
"We might see an 'Access Hollywood' type slump in Trump’s poll numbers, where some of his less devoted supporters sour on him temporarily, but then by November it will seem forgivable," Anderson said.
Longtime Republican pollster Neil Newhouse goes even further, arguing that "a guilty verdict is unlikely to make any difference." He points to the fact that "attitudes are so set in concrete" regarding both Trump and President Biden.
"Those who back Trump believe this is nothing more than a political witch hunt, while those who oppose him came to a guilty verdict before the trial ever began," Newhouse said.
However, Anderson emphasizes that the history-making trial has already had a negative impact on Trump's image.
"Regardless of the verdict, this trial clearly isn’t what Trump wants to be dealing with right now and has not helped him," Anderson said. "What might help him is a not guilty verdict that will allow him to claim vindication. But even then, it’s a real stretch to imagine it becomes a net positive for him."
Ultimately, the impact of a guilty or not guilty verdict on Trump's 2024 presidential aspirations remains uncertain. While polls suggest a potential guilty verdict would not significantly alter his support base, it could further alienate undecided voters and cast a shadow of doubt over his candidacy. Conversely, a not guilty verdict could boost his narrative of political victimization but also could raise questions about his credibility and fitness for office. With the trial's conclusion approaching, the political landscape is poised to shift dramatically, and the verdict will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in shaping the 2024 presidential election.
