Vice President Kamala Harris faces former President Donald Trump in a close presidential race.
Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead in the presidential race against former President Donald Trump, according to the latest Fox News national survey. Harris trails Trump by a mere one percentage point, 49-50%. Last month, Harris was also behind Trump by one point, 48-49%.
Despite significant events such as an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention, and Biden's withdrawal and endorsement of Harris, the race remains virtually unchanged. This stability is attributed to several factors.
Tight Race: Biden Withdraws from Presidential Contest, Harris Takes the Lead
First, both candidates enjoy strong support from their respective party bases. 94% of Democrats back Harris, while 93% of Republicans support Trump. Independents, on the other hand, slightly favor Trump by 8 points.
Secondly, both candidates have retained a majority of their 2020 supporters. Trump retains 95% of his 2020 backers, and Harris carries 93% of 2020 Biden supporters. New voters, however, are evenly split at 49% each.
There is a noticeable gender gap, with men favoring Trump by 12 points and women favoring Harris by 10. Additionally, significant demographic differences emerge in support for each candidate.
Trump performs better among men, White evangelical Christians, rural voters, and White men without a college degree. Harris, on the other hand, garners support from women, Black voters, those under age 30, and college graduates.
The survey also reveals that those living in union households favor Harris by 10 points, while veterans prefer Trump by 22 points. The extreme dislike for both candidates is also reflected in the survey, with those who hold unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump supporting Harris by 41 points.
In the expanded presidential ballot, Harris and Trump each receive 45% of the vote, while support for Kennedy stands at 6%. All other candidates receive 1%. RFK's support has declined from 10% in July and 15% in November 2023.
Harris holds an edge in personal likeability, with 48% viewing her favorably and 51% unfavorably. Trump's favorability is also improving, with 47% viewing him favorably and 53% unfavorably.
In contrast, Biden's favorability remains low at 38%, with 61% holding unfavorable views. Among the candidates' running mates, Walz has the highest favorability rating.
Both Harris and Trump express a high level of motivation among their supporters, with 68% of each group stating they are extremely motivated to vote.
Harris has gained an advantage over Trump in terms of honesty, empathy, and mental soundness. However, Trump retains a slight edge in being seen as a strong leader.
Nearly half of voters perceive Harris' positions on issues as "too liberal," while the same proportion view Trump as "too conservative."
Economic conditions remain a top concern for voters, with 38% citing it as the most important issue in their vote. Harris and Trump have different strengths on specific issues. Trump is trusted to handle the economy, border security, immigration, and foreign policy, while Harris is preferred on climate change, abortion, health care, and uniting the country.
Partisanship plays a significant role in issue priorities. Republicans prioritize the economy and immigration, while Democrats are more diverse in their concerns, including the economy, abortion, health care, and election integrity.
Finally, a majority of voters believe political debate has become "overheated and dangerous." They overwhelmingly prioritize debates between Harris and Trump, and are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
The tight race between Harris and Trump is expected to continue in the upcoming months, with each candidate seeking to solidify their lead and sway undecided voters.
