Kellyanne Conway claims that Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign is being "sabotaged" by President Biden. Conway cites recent polling data showing that the race is tight and that Trump is gaining ground among key voter groups.
The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a close contest, with recent polling indicating a tie between President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. According to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, neither candidate is up by more than 1 point in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Trump Gains Ground, Threatens Harris's Campaign
Trump's polling numbers are experiencing their best performance in the three times he has been the Republican nominee. Nationally, the latest RCP average shows Harris up by only 2.0%, a stark contrast from 2020, where Joe Biden led by 10%, and 2016, which showed Hillary Clinton up by 5.8%.
Harris is banking on abortion as a vote motivator, but polling suggests that it is not a top issue for voters. According to a recent CNN poll, only 11% of likely voters said that abortion is their top issue. In contrast, 41% said that the economy was their most important issue, followed by protecting democracy (21%) and immigration (12%). Likely voters trust Trump over Harris on the economy (50% vs. 39%), immigration (49% vs. 35%), and foreign policy (47% vs. 40%).
Trump Gains Ground, Threatens Harris's Campaign
Harris has failed to scaffold together either the Obama Coalition of 2008 or the Biden (Harris) Coalition of 2020. She has underperformed Biden's actual 2020 Election Day margins and is struggling with skeptical voters she needs to win. Harris is losing working-class voters by 36%, while Biden lost them by 26%. She is also hemorrhaging men, losing them to Trump by 14 points, an increase over Biden's 6% deficit in 2020.
Significantly, rank-and-file union members are tepid about Harris and not timid about supporting Trump. The Teamsters, "America’s largest, most diverse union" boasting 1.3 million members, declined to endorse a presidential candidate for the first time since 1996. That slap at Harris followed internal polling that showed 60% of members intend to vote for Trump, and just 34% for Harris.
Trump Gains Ground, Threatens Harris's Campaign
The political environment and underlying fundamentals are more favorable to Trump and the GOP, according to Gallup. Americans are dissatisfied with the state of the nation, with only 22% satisfied with the way things are going in the US. They view the economy negatively, with 48% viewing the current economic conditions as "poor" versus only 22% who think they are "excellent" or "good."
Trump has successfully grown his coalition with more Hispanics, Blacks, union households, men, working-class, non-college-educated, and younger voters. If he maintains his gains among these key groups and continues to outperform Republicans from historical standards, he will be the 47th president.
Trump Gains Ground, Threatens Harris's Campaign
Republicans are also gaining an edge of hundreds of thousands of votes compared to the 2020 Election. Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, will barnstorm the swing states and be on the plane every day from here on out, offering solutions, getting specific, and challenging Harris on her record.
Harris, on the other hand, is mostly out of view, pretending she's not the incumbent saddled with all the ills of a nation in pain. Trump is racing the clock; Harris is trying to run it out. She has more money, but he has something money can't buy: momentum.
Trump Gains Ground, Threatens Harris's Campaign
The 2024 presidential election may mirror the tighter-than-a-tick 2016 and 2020 contests, which were decided by handfuls of votes across several states out of more than 155 million cast in 2020 alone. This may come down to a technical, tactical trench warfare campaign, a battle of who is seen as more competent and, in the face of natural disasters, more ready, responsive, and compassionate.
