Despite Harris's lead in polls, experts believe the race is closer than it appears, with Pennsylvania playing a crucial role in determining the outcome.
Former senior Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer has revealed that experts in polling and data analysis believe the presidential campaign between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is extremely close, contradicting the perception among reporters and Democrats.
According to Pfeiffer, a poll of the press corps and most Democrats would result in an overwhelming majority predicting a Harris victory if the election were held today. However, data experts present a different picture.
Trump-Harris Race Tightens in Battleground States, According to Data Experts
"If you ask the people who are actually deep in the numbers and paying really close attention to what's happening in the battleground states, it's closer to 50-50," Pfeiffer said in an interview with Puck News' John Heilemann. "And I think it's very possible that if the election were held today, Trump would win."
Pfeiffer attributes the disparity in confidence to the tight margins in all the battleground states, especially Pennsylvania. "When you dig into the battleground state poll numbers, they're all toss-ups, every single one of them," he explained. "There's not a single battleground state poll where one of the candidates is up or down by more than two points, and most of them are tied, or at one point."
Trump-Harris Race Tightens in Battleground States, According to Data Experts
Pfeiffer emphasized the importance of Pennsylvania in this close race. "When you start doing the math of what happens if one of the candidates does not win Pennsylvania, it all gets very complicated, very quickly," he said.
Despite Harris's slight lead in some national polls, Pfeiffer believes there is "no number" in those polls that gives him confidence in her ability to win the battleground states. The Harris campaign has acknowledged the challenges, with campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon stating, "We head into the final stretch of this race as the clear underdogs."
Trump-Harris Race Tightens in Battleground States, According to Data Experts
Dillon has also highlighted Trump's motivated base of support and his high favorability ratings. The race remains tight, with both candidates facing significant challenges in the final months before Election Day.
In addition to Pennsylvania, other key battleground states include Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. The outcome of this election will largely depend on the results in these swing states.
Experts warn against assuming an easy victory for either candidate. The race is still very much up for grabs, and the slightest shifts in voter sentiment could make a significant difference.
