With former President Trump's New York criminal trial concluding, a guilty verdict could have significant consequences for his upcoming presidential rematch against President Biden. Despite Trump's slight lead in national and battleground state polls, a conviction on the felony charges could alter the race's trajectory.
The impending verdict in the historic trial of former President Trump has sparked intense speculation about its potential impact on the 2024 presidential election. Trump currently stands trial on nearly three dozen state felony charges related to falsifying business records connected to hush money payments made during the 2016 election.
According to a Quinnipiac University survey, a guilty verdict could cause a slight but potentially decisive drop in support for Trump. While 62% of registered voters indicated that it would make no difference to their vote, 15% stated they would be more likely to support him, and 21% less likely.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll revealed that eight out of ten Trump supporters would still back their candidate in the event of a guilty verdict. However, 16% said they would reconsider their support, and 4% indicated they would no longer support Trump.
Trump has repeatedly denied the charges and has claimed that the case is politically motivated. He has also been fined and threatened with jail by the judge for violating a gag order.
A Fox News national poll showed that nearly half of registered voters believe Trump has violated campaign finance laws, while 27% believe he has done nothing seriously wrong. However, these views are highly partisan, with wide discrepancies between Democrats and Republicans.
Veteran pollster Chris Anderson likened a potential guilty verdict to the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape, which briefly damaged Trump's chances in the 2016 election. He suggested that some of Trump's less devoted supporters may temporarily sour on him, but that this could be forgiven by November.
While the focus has been on the impact of a guilty verdict, a not-guilty verdict or hung jury could also have significant political consequences for Trump. However, there is limited polling data available on these scenarios.
Despite the pending trial, Trump currently holds a slight edge in national polling and in public opinion surveys in crucial battleground states. However, a guilty verdict could alter the electoral landscape, particularly among undecided or persuadable voters.
The outcome of Trump's New York trial has the potential to shape the trajectory of the 2024 presidential election. A guilty verdict could cause a slight decline in support for Trump, while an acquittal or hung jury could provide him with a political boost. Regardless of the verdict, the trial has cast a shadow over Trump's candidacy and has amplified the political and legal stakes surrounding his potential return to the White House.
