Despite Kamala Harris' apparent gains in polls, CNN data guru Harry Enten warns that polls have consistently underestimated Donald Trump in the past, leaving him very much in the running for the presidency.
CNN data guru Harry Enten has issued a sobering warning: polls have repeatedly underestimated Donald Trump's electoral performance, a trend that could potentially favor him in the race against Vice President Kamala Harris. Enten's analysis reveals that despite Harris' surge in poll numbers, Trump remains a formidable contender, with a significant chance of victory if historical polling errors repeat themselves.
Enten emphasizes that Trump has consistently outperformed poll predictions in key swing states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In 2016, polls underestimated Trump's support by an average of nine points in these states, and by five points in 2020. This pattern suggests that polls may again fail to accurately reflect Trump's true level of support.
Trump's Polling Underestimation: A History of Deceiving the Public
Harris' current lead in these swing states, hovering around four points according to recent New York Times-Sienna College polls, falls within the margin of error that has historically favored Trump. This implies that Trump's actual support could be significantly higher than polls indicate, giving him a potential advantage.
Enten cautions against premature celebration for Harris supporters, stressing that Trump has a strong track record of exceeding poll expectations. "If we have a polling shift like we've seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win," Enten warns.
Trump's Polling Underestimation: A History of Deceiving the Public
Enten's analysis also notes that Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have fallen behind Harris in favorability ratings. However, Trump maintains a 10-point lead over President Biden on issues deemed most important by voters, a lead that narrowed significantly after Harris became the Democratic nominee.
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris currently holds a 2-point advantage over Trump, a shift from Biden's original lead of 10 points. Enten attributes this change to Harris' nomination as the vice presidential candidate.
Trump's Polling Underestimation: A History of Deceiving the Public
Polling data on registered voters who express certainty about voting have remained stable for both Biden-Harris and Trump voters since Harris became the nominee. This absence of significant shifts suggests that the electoral landscape could remain relatively static in the coming months.
Trump's current favorability rating surpasses his popularity levels at similar points in 2020 and 2016. Enten interprets this as a positive sign for Trump, indicating that he may be gaining ground in the perception of voters.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have emerged as "bellwether" states, consistently aligning with the winner of the general election in recent presidential races. Trump's narrow victories in these states in 2016 and Biden's subsequent reversal in 2020 underscore their electoral significance.
Enten concludes by cautioning that while Harris has made progress in polls, Trump remains a formidable opponent with a proven ability to surpass poll expectations. The possibility of a significant polling shift in favor of Trump, as has occurred in previous elections, looms over the race, casting doubt on the accuracy of current polls and leaving the election's outcome uncertain.
