CNN's Harry Enten warns that if 2024 election polling errors mimic those of 2020, former President Trump could secure a landslide victory.
CNN's Harry Enten, a senior data reporter, has issued a dire warning: if the 2024 presidential election polls demonstrate errors similar to those witnessed in 2020, former President Trump could emerge victorious in a resounding "blowout."
Enten analyzed current swing state polling data between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, revealing a tight race that defies easy predictions. However, he emphasized the significant polling errors in recent elections, particularly in 2020. Should such errors recur in 2024, Trump could potentially win by a sizable margin.
Trump's Potential 'Blowout' Victory: Poll Errors Mirror 2020 Election
"But let's say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020," Enten cautioned on CNN, "what happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia."
Enten's analysis showed that Harris currently holds a narrow lead in Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Trump edges her out in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. However, Enten noted that these leads are within the polling margin of error, making it impossible to definitively determine the frontrunner.
Trump's Potential 'Blowout' Victory: Poll Errors Mirror 2020 Election
"The bottom line is, the state polling averages tell us... it's just a race that is too close to call. Maybe one candidate has an advantage over the other one. But the bottom line is, it is way too close to call and it will remain so," Enten stated.
Nevertheless, Enten presented hypothetical scenarios based on varying degrees of polling errors. If the polls prove accurate, Harris would secure 276 electoral votes to Trump's 262. Conversely, if the polls exhibit errors commensurate with those of the 2020 election, Trump could amass 312 electoral votes, leaving Harris with only 226.
Trump's Potential 'Blowout' Victory: Poll Errors Mirror 2020 Election
Enten also considered the potential impact of polling errors similar to those predicting a Republican landslide in the 2022 midterm elections. In such a scenario, Harris would emerge the victor with 319 electoral votes, prevailing in both the Great Lake battleground states and states such as North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
Enten stressed the inherent uncertainty surrounding polling data, emphasizing that current swing state polls merely indicate a "too close to call" race. Significant polling errors could drastically alter the election outcome, as evidenced by the 2020 election. Voters must remain cognizant of these potential discrepancies when interpreting election-related polling data.
Trump's Potential 'Blowout' Victory: Poll Errors Mirror 2020 Election
