Despite Vice President Kamala Harris' potential presidential nomination, CNN's data reporter warns that Democrats face an unprecedentedly popular former President Trump.
In a sobering assessment for the Democratic Party, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten has issued a stark warning: even if Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic presidential nominee, the party will confront a former President Trump who has never been more popular.
Enten's analysis, based on recent national polls, reveals that Trump's approval ratings have soared to record highs post-Republican National Convention. An ABC/Ipsos poll shows Trump's favorable rating at 40%, while a Quinnipiac University poll places it at 46%.
Trump's Strongest Ever Popularity: A Challenge for Harris, Warns CNN Data Guru
"The fact is, Donald Trump is more popular now than he ever has been before," Enten declared.
This surge in popularity poses a significant challenge for Harris, according to Enten. While she is currently favored to win the Democratic nomination, she faces a much closer race against Trump than Biden did in 2020.
Trump's Strongest Ever Popularity: A Challenge for Harris, Warns CNN Data Guru
Based on current polling data, Trump holds a one-point advantage over Harris in the national popular vote. In comparison, Biden led Trump by four points in the popular vote during the 2020 election.
"So at this point, Donald Trump is running five points better – five points better – than he was four years ago against Joe Biden," Enten said.
Trump's Strongest Ever Popularity: A Challenge for Harris, Warns CNN Data Guru
The implications of this shift are profound for Harris. She will not only need to outperform her current national polling numbers to win the popular vote but also exceed them to secure an electoral college victory.
Enten acknowledges that no national polling has been conducted since Biden withdrew his campaign, but he maintains that Harris's performance will need to improve significantly to overcome Trump's current popularity.
In addition to his strong approval ratings, Trump has also benefited from a favorable media landscape. According to Enten, Trump has received significantly more positive coverage on conservative outlets than Biden did during the 2020 election.
"Trump has essentially received free advertising from Fox News, Newsmax, and One America News," Enten said.
The combination of Trump's popularity and the media landscape presents a daunting task for Harris. Democrats will need to develop a compelling strategy to mobilize their base, reach out to swing voters, and counter Trump's message effectively.
While the Democratic Party has yet to officially nominate a candidate, Enten's analysis serves as a timely reminder of the challenges that lie ahead. Harris will need to harness the full force of the Democratic machine and craft a campaign that resonates with the American people if she hopes to triumph over an energized and popular former President Trump.
